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Durham, NC · Census Tract 37063920006 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$495K
Downside (P10)
$310K
-37% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$557K
+12% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.05M
+112% by 2030
Base case: +12% by 2030, with a forecast range from -37% to +112%. The model forecasts this with 27% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $495K | $537K | $536K | $530K | $557K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$41,484 | +$40,307 | +$34,453 | +$61,455 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +8.4% | +8.1% | +7.0% | +12.4% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $339K | $289K | $276K | $310K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $827K | $855K | $918K | $1.1M |
The upside and downside bands are unusually far apart. Treat the median path as one plausible case rather than a tight estimate.
Near-term band
$339K to $827K
90.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$310K to $1.1M
133.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 920006 | $495K | $557K | +12.4% | |
| Triangle | $488K | $529K | +8.5% | |
| Durham (Tract 002031) | $483K | $508K | +5.2% | |
| Carr | $477K | $501K | +5.0% | |
| Durham (Tract 002029) | $512K | $524K | +2.5% | |
| Durham (Tract 000301) | $480K | $479K | -0.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 920006 | $495K | $557K | +12.4% | |
| Durham (Tract 000007) | $988K | $1.44M | +45.5% | |
| Durham (Tract 280102) | $250K | $349K | +39.7% | |
| Durham (Tract 760004) | $453K | $598K | +32.2% | |
| Durham (Tract 240003) | $947K | $1.25M | +32.0% | |
| Durham (Tract 400005) | $416K | $518K | +24.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 920006 | $495K | $557K | $741K | |
| Durham (Tract 001303) | $336K | $333K | $83K | |
| Durham (Tract 002035) | $344K | $347K | $83K | |
| Durham (Tract 001708) | $335K | $345K | $83K | |
| Lebanon | $345K | $361K | $82K | |
| Durham (Tract 001301) | $197K | $204K | $52K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Durham, NC · Census Tract 37063920006 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$495K
Downside (P10)
$310K
-37% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$557K
+12% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.05M
+112% by 2030
Base case: +12% by 2030, with a forecast range from -37% to +112%. The model forecasts this with 27% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $495K | $537K | $536K | $530K | $557K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$41,484 | +$40,307 | +$34,453 | +$61,455 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +8.4% | +8.1% | +7.0% | +12.4% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $339K | $289K | $276K | $310K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $827K | $855K | $918K | $1.1M |
The upside and downside bands are unusually far apart. Treat the median path as one plausible case rather than a tight estimate.
Near-term band
$339K to $827K
90.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$310K to $1.1M
133.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 920006 | $495K | $557K | +12.4% | |
| Triangle | $488K | $529K | +8.5% | |
| Durham (Tract 002031) | $483K | $508K | +5.2% | |
| Carr | $477K | $501K | +5.0% | |
| Durham (Tract 002029) | $512K | $524K | +2.5% | |
| Durham (Tract 000301) | $480K | $479K | -0.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 920006 | $495K | $557K | +12.4% | |
| Durham (Tract 000007) | $988K | $1.44M | +45.5% | |
| Durham (Tract 280102) | $250K | $349K | +39.7% | |
| Durham (Tract 760004) | $453K | $598K | +32.2% | |
| Durham (Tract 240003) | $947K | $1.25M | +32.0% | |
| Durham (Tract 400005) | $416K | $518K | +24.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 920006 | $495K | $557K | $741K | |
| Durham (Tract 001303) | $336K | $333K | $83K | |
| Durham (Tract 002035) | $344K | $347K | $83K | |
| Durham (Tract 001708) | $335K | $345K | $83K | |
| Lebanon | $345K | $361K | $82K | |
| Durham (Tract 001301) | $197K | $204K | $52K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
