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Durham, NC · Census Tract 37063400005 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$416K
Downside (P10)
$319K
-23% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$518K
+25% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$872K
+110% by 2030
Base case: +25% by 2030, with a forecast range from -23% to +110%. The model forecasts this with 41% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $416K | $461K | $462K | $482K | $518K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$45,318 | +$46,533 | +$65,877 | +$102,683 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +10.9% | +11.2% | +15.8% | +24.7% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $335K | $301K | $305K | $319K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $653K | $693K | $770K | $872K |
The predictive band is wider than average, so point estimates should be read with caution. Short-term confidence is usable, but the farther-out range broadens significantly.
Near-term band
$335K to $653K
69.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$319K to $872K
106.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 400005 | $416K | $518K | +24.7% | |
| Triangle | $411K | $486K | +18.4% | |
| Durham (Tract 002038) | $428K | $466K | +9.1% | |
| Oak Grove | $414K | $448K | +8.1% | |
| Durham (Tract 002037) | $425K | $455K | +7.0% | |
| Durham (Tract 000500) | $417K | $412K | -1.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 400005 | $416K | $518K | +24.7% | |
| Durham (Tract 000007) | $988K | $1.44M | +45.5% | |
| Durham (Tract 280102) | $250K | $349K | +39.7% | |
| Durham (Tract 760004) | $453K | $598K | +32.2% | |
| Durham (Tract 240003) | $947K | $1.25M | +32.0% | |
| Triangle | $411K | $486K | +18.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 400005 | $416K | $518K | $553K | |
| Durham (Tract 001303) | $336K | $333K | $83K | |
| Durham (Tract 002035) | $344K | $347K | $83K | |
| Durham (Tract 001708) | $335K | $345K | $83K | |
| Lebanon | $345K | $361K | $82K | |
| Durham (Tract 001301) | $197K | $204K | $52K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Durham, NC · Census Tract 37063400005 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$416K
Downside (P10)
$319K
-23% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$518K
+25% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$872K
+110% by 2030
Base case: +25% by 2030, with a forecast range from -23% to +110%. The model forecasts this with 41% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $416K | $461K | $462K | $482K | $518K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$45,318 | +$46,533 | +$65,877 | +$102,683 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +10.9% | +11.2% | +15.8% | +24.7% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $335K | $301K | $305K | $319K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $653K | $693K | $770K | $872K |
The predictive band is wider than average, so point estimates should be read with caution. Short-term confidence is usable, but the farther-out range broadens significantly.
Near-term band
$335K to $653K
69.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$319K to $872K
106.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 400005 | $416K | $518K | +24.7% | |
| Triangle | $411K | $486K | +18.4% | |
| Durham (Tract 002038) | $428K | $466K | +9.1% | |
| Oak Grove | $414K | $448K | +8.1% | |
| Durham (Tract 002037) | $425K | $455K | +7.0% | |
| Durham (Tract 000500) | $417K | $412K | -1.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 400005 | $416K | $518K | +24.7% | |
| Durham (Tract 000007) | $988K | $1.44M | +45.5% | |
| Durham (Tract 280102) | $250K | $349K | +39.7% | |
| Durham (Tract 760004) | $453K | $598K | +32.2% | |
| Durham (Tract 240003) | $947K | $1.25M | +32.0% | |
| Triangle | $411K | $486K | +18.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 400005 | $416K | $518K | $553K | |
| Durham (Tract 001303) | $336K | $333K | $83K | |
| Durham (Tract 002035) | $344K | $347K | $83K | |
| Durham (Tract 001708) | $335K | $345K | $83K | |
| Lebanon | $345K | $361K | $82K | |
| Durham (Tract 001301) | $197K | $204K | $52K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
