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Durham, NC · Census Tract 37063760004 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$453K
Downside (P10)
$372K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$598K
+32% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$941K
+108% by 2030
Base case: +32% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +108%. The model forecasts this with 48% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $453K | $518K | $547K | $572K | $598K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$65,698 | +$94,159 | +$119,697 | +$145,704 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +14.5% | +20.8% | +26.4% | +32.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $381K | $359K | $354K | $372K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $675K | $756K | $820K | $941K |
The predictive band is wider than average, so point estimates should be read with caution. Short-term confidence is usable, but the farther-out range broadens significantly.
Near-term band
$381K to $675K
56.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$372K to $941K
95.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 760004 | $453K | $598K | +32.2% | |
| Durham (Tract 880007) | $466K | $539K | +15.9% | |
| Mangum | $444K | $486K | +9.5% | |
| Durham (Tract 002300) | $466K | $503K | +8.0% | |
| Durham (Tract 000600) | $445K | $457K | +2.6% | |
| Durham (Tract 002021) | $442K | $451K | +2.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 760004 | $453K | $598K | +32.2% | |
| Durham (Tract 000007) | $988K | $1.44M | +45.5% | |
| Durham (Tract 280102) | $250K | $349K | +39.7% | |
| Durham (Tract 240003) | $947K | $1.25M | +32.0% | |
| Durham (Tract 400005) | $416K | $518K | +24.7% | |
| Triangle | $411K | $486K | +18.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 760004 | $453K | $598K | $569K | |
| Durham (Tract 001303) | $336K | $333K | $83K | |
| Durham (Tract 002035) | $344K | $347K | $83K | |
| Durham (Tract 001708) | $335K | $345K | $83K | |
| Lebanon | $345K | $361K | $82K | |
| Durham (Tract 001301) | $197K | $204K | $52K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Durham, NC · Census Tract 37063760004 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$453K
Downside (P10)
$372K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$598K
+32% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$941K
+108% by 2030
Base case: +32% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +108%. The model forecasts this with 48% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $453K | $518K | $547K | $572K | $598K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$65,698 | +$94,159 | +$119,697 | +$145,704 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +14.5% | +20.8% | +26.4% | +32.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $381K | $359K | $354K | $372K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $675K | $756K | $820K | $941K |
The predictive band is wider than average, so point estimates should be read with caution. Short-term confidence is usable, but the farther-out range broadens significantly.
Near-term band
$381K to $675K
56.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$372K to $941K
95.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 760004 | $453K | $598K | +32.2% | |
| Durham (Tract 880007) | $466K | $539K | +15.9% | |
| Mangum | $444K | $486K | +9.5% | |
| Durham (Tract 002300) | $466K | $503K | +8.0% | |
| Durham (Tract 000600) | $445K | $457K | +2.6% | |
| Durham (Tract 002021) | $442K | $451K | +2.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 760004 | $453K | $598K | +32.2% | |
| Durham (Tract 000007) | $988K | $1.44M | +45.5% | |
| Durham (Tract 280102) | $250K | $349K | +39.7% | |
| Durham (Tract 240003) | $947K | $1.25M | +32.0% | |
| Durham (Tract 400005) | $416K | $518K | +24.7% | |
| Triangle | $411K | $486K | +18.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 760004 | $453K | $598K | $569K | |
| Durham (Tract 001303) | $336K | $333K | $83K | |
| Durham (Tract 002035) | $344K | $347K | $83K | |
| Durham (Tract 001708) | $335K | $345K | $83K | |
| Lebanon | $345K | $361K | $82K | |
| Durham (Tract 001301) | $197K | $204K | $52K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
