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Durham, NC · Census Tract 37063280102 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$250K
Downside (P10)
$233K
-7% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$349K
+40% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$524K
+110% by 2030
Base case: +40% by 2030, with a forecast range from -7% to +110%. The model forecasts this with 54% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $250K | $289K | $296K | $325K | $349K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$38,793 | +$45,751 | +$75,139 | +$99,320 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +15.5% | +18.3% | +30.1% | +39.7% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $225K | $209K | $221K | $233K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $388K | $410K | $458K | $524K |
The predictive band is wider than average, so point estimates should be read with caution. This usually reflects sparse local support, noisier history, or faster structural change.
Near-term band
$225K to $388K
56.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$233K to $524K
83.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 280102 | $250K | $349K | +39.7% | |
| Durham (Tract 001802) | $256K | $288K | +12.4% | |
| Durham (Tract 001304) | $257K | $275K | +7.2% | |
| Oak Grove | $242K | $259K | +6.8% | |
| Durham (Tract 002009) | $236K | $251K | +6.7% | |
| Durham (Tract 001711) | $243K | $251K | +3.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 280102 | $250K | $349K | +39.7% | |
| Durham (Tract 000007) | $988K | $1.44M | +45.5% | |
| Durham (Tract 760004) | $453K | $598K | +32.2% | |
| Durham (Tract 240003) | $947K | $1.25M | +32.0% | |
| Durham (Tract 400005) | $416K | $518K | +24.7% | |
| Triangle | $411K | $486K | +18.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 280102 | $250K | $349K | $291K | |
| Durham (Tract 001303) | $336K | $333K | $83K | |
| Durham (Tract 002035) | $344K | $347K | $83K | |
| Durham (Tract 001708) | $335K | $345K | $83K | |
| Lebanon | $345K | $361K | $82K | |
| Durham (Tract 001301) | $197K | $204K | $52K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Durham, NC · Census Tract 37063280102 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$250K
Downside (P10)
$233K
-7% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$349K
+40% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$524K
+110% by 2030
Base case: +40% by 2030, with a forecast range from -7% to +110%. The model forecasts this with 54% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $250K | $289K | $296K | $325K | $349K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$38,793 | +$45,751 | +$75,139 | +$99,320 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +15.5% | +18.3% | +30.1% | +39.7% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $225K | $209K | $221K | $233K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $388K | $410K | $458K | $524K |
The predictive band is wider than average, so point estimates should be read with caution. This usually reflects sparse local support, noisier history, or faster structural change.
Near-term band
$225K to $388K
56.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$233K to $524K
83.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 280102 | $250K | $349K | +39.7% | |
| Durham (Tract 001802) | $256K | $288K | +12.4% | |
| Durham (Tract 001304) | $257K | $275K | +7.2% | |
| Oak Grove | $242K | $259K | +6.8% | |
| Durham (Tract 002009) | $236K | $251K | +6.7% | |
| Durham (Tract 001711) | $243K | $251K | +3.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 280102 | $250K | $349K | +39.7% | |
| Durham (Tract 000007) | $988K | $1.44M | +45.5% | |
| Durham (Tract 760004) | $453K | $598K | +32.2% | |
| Durham (Tract 240003) | $947K | $1.25M | +32.0% | |
| Durham (Tract 400005) | $416K | $518K | +24.7% | |
| Triangle | $411K | $486K | +18.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 280102 | $250K | $349K | $291K | |
| Durham (Tract 001303) | $336K | $333K | $83K | |
| Durham (Tract 002035) | $344K | $347K | $83K | |
| Durham (Tract 001708) | $335K | $345K | $83K | |
| Lebanon | $345K | $361K | $82K | |
| Durham (Tract 001301) | $197K | $204K | $52K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
