FAQ & Glossary
Definitions and answers to help you navigate our probabilistic forecasts.
Glossary of Terms
Uncertainty Band
P10-P90 is the modeled range; P50 is the median. A wider range means the model represents more uncertainty.
Base Forecast (P50)
The median of the modeled forecast distribution. P50 is a model estimate, not a guarantee that the eventual value will land equally often above and below it.
Parcel vs. Neighborhood
A parcel is an individual lot/property. A neighborhood (often represented by a Census Tract or ZCTA) is an aggregation. Homecastr calculates at the parcel level and aggregates up.
Census Tract
A small, relatively permanent geographic area defined by the U.S. Census Bureau. We aggregate parcel-level forecasts to the Census Tract level for map visualization, giving you localized trends without exposing individual property data at wide zoom levels.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why not just give me one number?
Because the future is not a single number. If you are an investor buying a property, knowing that the "average" outcome is a $20k profit is less useful than knowing there is a 10% chance you lose $50k. Probability bands let you underwrite risk.
How often is the data updated?
We process new transaction data continuously, but our core structural models undergo a full recalibration every quarter. Look for the "Model Version" in the app for exact calibration dates.
What areas do you cover?
Our forecasting models cover residential properties across the United States, including Texas, New York, Florida, and more. Browse the forecast directory to find your state, county, or neighborhood.
How can I access the raw data?
Raw data exports and API access are available for enterprise clients. Please reach out to our team at daniel@homecastr.com.