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Durham, NC · ZIP 27712 · Census Tract 37063001601 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$345K
Downside (P10)
$285K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$338K
-2% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$494K
+43% by 2030
Base case: -2% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +43%. The model forecasts this with 66% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $172K | $169K | $171K | $179K | $184K | $192K | $231K | $266K | $312K | $345K | $345K | $351K | $344K | $338K | $361K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$172,804 | -$175,104 | -$173,604 | -$165,804 | -$160,704 | -$152,904 | -$114,004 | -$78,504 | -$32,204 | +$96 | +$6,269 | -$723 | -$6,303 | +$16,391 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -50.2% | -50.8% | -50.4% | -48.1% | -46.6% | -44.4% | -33.1% | -22.8% | -9.3% | +0.0% | +1.8% | -0.2% | -1.8% | +4.8% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $304K | $291K | $285K | $321K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $406K | $460K | $494K | $403K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$304K to $406K
28.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$321K to $403K
22.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lebanon | $343K | $338K | -1.4% | |
| Durham (Tract 002026) | $349K | $398K | +13.9% | |
| Triangle | $351K | $391K | +11.2% | |
| Durham (Tract 000102) | $344K | $382K | +10.9% | |
| Durham (Tract 002035) | $338K | $368K | +8.8% | |
| Lebanon | $338K | $354K | +4.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lebanon | $343K | $338K | -1.4% | |
| Durham (Tract 000007) | $988K | $1.31M | +33.0% | |
| Durham (Tract 280102) | $250K | $325K | +30.1% | |
| Durham (Tract 760004) | $453K | $572K | +26.4% | |
| Durham (Tract 240003) | $947K | $1.17M | +23.4% | |
| Durham (Tract 000301) | $473K | $580K | +22.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lebanon | $343K | $338K | $209K | |
| Oak Grove (Tract 001801) | $245K | $259K | $118K | |
| Durham (Tract 001002) | $220K | $233K | $111K | |
| Durham (Tract 001400) | $170K | $187K | $97K | |
| Oak Grove (Tract 001810) | $189K | $204K | $90K | |
| Durham (Tract 001301) | $194K | $218K | $87K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Durham, NC · ZIP 27712 · Census Tract 37063001601 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$345K
Downside (P10)
$285K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$338K
-2% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$494K
+43% by 2030
Base case: -2% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +43%. The model forecasts this with 66% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $172K | $169K | $171K | $179K | $184K | $192K | $231K | $266K | $312K | $345K | $345K | $351K | $344K | $338K | $361K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$172,804 | -$175,104 | -$173,604 | -$165,804 | -$160,704 | -$152,904 | -$114,004 | -$78,504 | -$32,204 | +$96 | +$6,269 | -$723 | -$6,303 | +$16,391 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -50.2% | -50.8% | -50.4% | -48.1% | -46.6% | -44.4% | -33.1% | -22.8% | -9.3% | +0.0% | +1.8% | -0.2% | -1.8% | +4.8% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $304K | $291K | $285K | $321K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $406K | $460K | $494K | $403K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$304K to $406K
28.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$321K to $403K
22.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lebanon | $343K | $338K | -1.4% | |
| Durham (Tract 002026) | $349K | $398K | +13.9% | |
| Triangle | $351K | $391K | +11.2% | |
| Durham (Tract 000102) | $344K | $382K | +10.9% | |
| Durham (Tract 002035) | $338K | $368K | +8.8% | |
| Lebanon | $338K | $354K | +4.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lebanon | $343K | $338K | -1.4% | |
| Durham (Tract 000007) | $988K | $1.31M | +33.0% | |
| Durham (Tract 280102) | $250K | $325K | +30.1% | |
| Durham (Tract 760004) | $453K | $572K | +26.4% | |
| Durham (Tract 240003) | $947K | $1.17M | +23.4% | |
| Durham (Tract 000301) | $473K | $580K | +22.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lebanon | $343K | $338K | $209K | |
| Oak Grove (Tract 001801) | $245K | $259K | $118K | |
| Durham (Tract 001002) | $220K | $233K | $111K | |
| Durham (Tract 001400) | $170K | $187K | $97K | |
| Oak Grove (Tract 001810) | $189K | $204K | $90K | |
| Durham (Tract 001301) | $194K | $218K | $87K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
