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Warren, NY · ZIP 12856 · Census Tract 36113074000 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$222K
Downside (P10)
$186K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$230K
+3% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$291K
+31% by 2030
Base case: +3% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +31%. The model forecasts this with 75% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $154K | $157K | $151K | $154K | $161K | $184K | $179K | $205K | $196K | $216K | $222K | $226K | $225K | $230K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$68,638 | -$65,038 | -$71,038 | -$68,938 | -$61,738 | -$38,038 | -$43,338 | -$17,438 | -$26,338 | -$6,838 | +$3,989 | +$2,794 | +$7,106 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -30.9% | -29.2% | -31.9% | -31.0% | -27.8% | -17.1% | -19.5% | -7.8% | -11.8% | -3.1% | +1.8% | +1.3% | +3.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $196K | $192K | $186K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $258K | $285K | $291K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$196K to $258K
27.7% of median
Long-horizon band
$186K to $291K
45.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnsburg | $220K | $230K | +4.3% | |
| Glens Falls (Tract 070100) | $217K | $248K | +14.3% | |
| Glens Falls (Tract 070300) | $234K | $259K | +10.4% | |
| Queensbury | $231K | $248K | +7.5% | |
| Glens Falls (Tract 070400) | $221K | $232K | +4.9% | |
| Lake Luzerne | $222K | $232K | +4.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnsburg | $220K | $230K | +4.3% | |
| Warren (Tract 240006) | $459K | $633K | +37.9% | |
| Warren (Tract 160005) | $368K | $490K | +33.4% | |
| Warren (Tract 720005) | $407K | $528K | +29.9% | |
| Warren (Tract 200004) | $406K | $521K | +28.5% | |
| Warren (Tract 800006) | $437K | $559K | +27.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnsburg | $220K | $230K | $105K | |
| Warrensburg | $173K | $191K | $117K | |
| Glens Falls (Tract 070100) | $217K | $248K | $115K | |
| Lake Luzerne | $222K | $232K | $111K | |
| Stony Creek area | $200K | $218K | $104K | |
| Glens Falls (Tract 070200) | $167K | $186K | $76K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Warren, NY · ZIP 12856 · Census Tract 36113074000 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$222K
Downside (P10)
$186K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$230K
+3% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$291K
+31% by 2030
Base case: +3% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +31%. The model forecasts this with 75% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $154K | $157K | $151K | $154K | $161K | $184K | $179K | $205K | $196K | $216K | $222K | $226K | $225K | $230K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$68,638 | -$65,038 | -$71,038 | -$68,938 | -$61,738 | -$38,038 | -$43,338 | -$17,438 | -$26,338 | -$6,838 | +$3,989 | +$2,794 | +$7,106 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -30.9% | -29.2% | -31.9% | -31.0% | -27.8% | -17.1% | -19.5% | -7.8% | -11.8% | -3.1% | +1.8% | +1.3% | +3.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $196K | $192K | $186K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $258K | $285K | $291K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$196K to $258K
27.7% of median
Long-horizon band
$186K to $291K
45.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnsburg | $220K | $230K | +4.3% | |
| Glens Falls (Tract 070100) | $217K | $248K | +14.3% | |
| Glens Falls (Tract 070300) | $234K | $259K | +10.4% | |
| Queensbury | $231K | $248K | +7.5% | |
| Glens Falls (Tract 070400) | $221K | $232K | +4.9% | |
| Lake Luzerne | $222K | $232K | +4.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnsburg | $220K | $230K | +4.3% | |
| Warren (Tract 240006) | $459K | $633K | +37.9% | |
| Warren (Tract 160005) | $368K | $490K | +33.4% | |
| Warren (Tract 720005) | $407K | $528K | +29.9% | |
| Warren (Tract 200004) | $406K | $521K | +28.5% | |
| Warren (Tract 800006) | $437K | $559K | +27.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnsburg | $220K | $230K | $105K | |
| Warrensburg | $173K | $191K | $117K | |
| Glens Falls (Tract 070100) | $217K | $248K | $115K | |
| Lake Luzerne | $222K | $232K | $111K | |
| Stony Creek area | $200K | $218K | $104K | |
| Glens Falls (Tract 070200) | $167K | $186K | $76K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
