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Warren, NY · ZIP 12878 · Census Tract 36113073500 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$204K
Downside (P10)
$174K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$218K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$277K
+36% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +36%. The model forecasts this with 74% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $134K | $144K | $136K | $137K | $152K | $169K | $166K | $175K | $192K | $196K | $204K | $206K | $210K | $218K | $204K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$69,580 | -$59,480 | -$67,380 | -$67,080 | -$51,680 | -$34,280 | -$37,780 | -$28,680 | -$12,180 | -$7,880 | +$2,701 | +$6,265 | +$13,923 | +$237 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -34.2% | -29.2% | -33.1% | -32.9% | -25.4% | -16.8% | -18.5% | -14.1% | -6.0% | -3.9% | +1.3% | +3.1% | +6.8% | +0.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $175K | $173K | $174K | $178K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $245K | $260K | $277K | $234K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$175K to $245K
33.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$178K to $234K
27.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stony Creek area | $200K | $218K | +8.9% | |
| Glens Falls (Tract 070100) | $217K | $248K | +14.3% | |
| Glens Falls (Tract 070500) | $198K | $209K | +5.4% | |
| Glens Falls (Tract 070400) | $221K | $232K | +4.9% | |
| Lake Luzerne | $222K | $232K | +4.5% | |
| Johnsburg | $220K | $230K | +4.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stony Creek area | $200K | $218K | +8.9% | |
| Warren (Tract 240006) | $459K | $633K | +37.9% | |
| Warren (Tract 160005) | $368K | $490K | +33.4% | |
| Warren (Tract 720005) | $407K | $528K | +29.9% | |
| Warren (Tract 200004) | $406K | $521K | +28.5% | |
| Warren (Tract 800006) | $437K | $559K | +27.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stony Creek area | $200K | $218K | $104K | |
| Warrensburg | $173K | $191K | $117K | |
| Glens Falls (Tract 070100) | $217K | $248K | $115K | |
| Lake Luzerne | $222K | $232K | $111K | |
| Johnsburg | $220K | $230K | $105K | |
| Glens Falls (Tract 070200) | $167K | $186K | $76K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Warren, NY · ZIP 12878 · Census Tract 36113073500 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$204K
Downside (P10)
$174K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$218K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$277K
+36% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +36%. The model forecasts this with 74% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $134K | $144K | $136K | $137K | $152K | $169K | $166K | $175K | $192K | $196K | $204K | $206K | $210K | $218K | $204K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$69,580 | -$59,480 | -$67,380 | -$67,080 | -$51,680 | -$34,280 | -$37,780 | -$28,680 | -$12,180 | -$7,880 | +$2,701 | +$6,265 | +$13,923 | +$237 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -34.2% | -29.2% | -33.1% | -32.9% | -25.4% | -16.8% | -18.5% | -14.1% | -6.0% | -3.9% | +1.3% | +3.1% | +6.8% | +0.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $175K | $173K | $174K | $178K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $245K | $260K | $277K | $234K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$175K to $245K
33.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$178K to $234K
27.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stony Creek area | $200K | $218K | +8.9% | |
| Glens Falls (Tract 070100) | $217K | $248K | +14.3% | |
| Glens Falls (Tract 070500) | $198K | $209K | +5.4% | |
| Glens Falls (Tract 070400) | $221K | $232K | +4.9% | |
| Lake Luzerne | $222K | $232K | +4.5% | |
| Johnsburg | $220K | $230K | +4.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stony Creek area | $200K | $218K | +8.9% | |
| Warren (Tract 240006) | $459K | $633K | +37.9% | |
| Warren (Tract 160005) | $368K | $490K | +33.4% | |
| Warren (Tract 720005) | $407K | $528K | +29.9% | |
| Warren (Tract 200004) | $406K | $521K | +28.5% | |
| Warren (Tract 800006) | $437K | $559K | +27.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stony Creek area | $200K | $218K | $104K | |
| Warrensburg | $173K | $191K | $117K | |
| Glens Falls (Tract 070100) | $217K | $248K | $115K | |
| Lake Luzerne | $222K | $232K | $111K | |
| Johnsburg | $220K | $230K | $105K | |
| Glens Falls (Tract 070200) | $167K | $186K | $76K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
