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Warren, NY · ZIP 12801 · Census Tract 36113070200 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$171K
Downside (P10)
$157K
-8% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$186K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$233K
+36% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -8% to +36%. The model forecasts this with 78% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $128K | $136K | $138K | $136K | $141K | $140K | $138K | $151K | $178K | $165K | $171K | $176K | $182K | $186K | $173K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$42,826 | -$35,326 | -$32,626 | -$34,526 | -$29,926 | -$31,126 | -$33,026 | -$19,826 | +$7,174 | -$5,426 | +$5,503 | +$11,558 | +$15,067 | +$2,468 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -25.1% | -20.7% | -19.1% | -20.2% | -17.5% | -18.2% | -19.3% | -11.6% | +4.2% | -3.2% | +3.2% | +6.8% | +8.8% | +1.4% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $156K | $158K | $157K | $155K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $198K | $212K | $233K | $195K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$156K to $198K
23.5% of median
Long-horizon band
$155K to $195K
23.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glens Falls | $167K | $186K | +11.6% | |
| Glens Falls (Tract 070100) | $217K | $248K | +14.3% | |
| Warrensburg | $173K | $191K | +10.5% | |
| Stony Creek area | $200K | $218K | +8.9% | |
| Glens Falls (Tract 070500) | $198K | $209K | +5.4% | |
| Johnsburg | $220K | $230K | +4.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glens Falls | $167K | $186K | +11.6% | |
| Warren (Tract 240006) | $459K | $633K | +37.9% | |
| Warren (Tract 160005) | $368K | $490K | +33.4% | |
| Warren (Tract 720005) | $407K | $528K | +29.9% | |
| Warren (Tract 200004) | $406K | $521K | +28.5% | |
| Warren (Tract 800006) | $437K | $559K | +27.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glens Falls | $167K | $186K | $76K | |
| Warrensburg | $173K | $191K | $117K | |
| Glens Falls | $217K | $248K | $115K | |
| Lake Luzerne | $222K | $232K | $111K | |
| Johnsburg | $220K | $230K | $105K | |
| Stony Creek area | $200K | $218K | $104K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Warren, NY · ZIP 12801 · Census Tract 36113070200 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$171K
Downside (P10)
$157K
-8% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$186K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$233K
+36% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -8% to +36%. The model forecasts this with 78% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $128K | $136K | $138K | $136K | $141K | $140K | $138K | $151K | $178K | $165K | $171K | $176K | $182K | $186K | $173K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$42,826 | -$35,326 | -$32,626 | -$34,526 | -$29,926 | -$31,126 | -$33,026 | -$19,826 | +$7,174 | -$5,426 | +$5,503 | +$11,558 | +$15,067 | +$2,468 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -25.1% | -20.7% | -19.1% | -20.2% | -17.5% | -18.2% | -19.3% | -11.6% | +4.2% | -3.2% | +3.2% | +6.8% | +8.8% | +1.4% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $156K | $158K | $157K | $155K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $198K | $212K | $233K | $195K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$156K to $198K
23.5% of median
Long-horizon band
$155K to $195K
23.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glens Falls | $167K | $186K | +11.6% | |
| Glens Falls (Tract 070100) | $217K | $248K | +14.3% | |
| Warrensburg | $173K | $191K | +10.5% | |
| Stony Creek area | $200K | $218K | +8.9% | |
| Glens Falls (Tract 070500) | $198K | $209K | +5.4% | |
| Johnsburg | $220K | $230K | +4.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glens Falls | $167K | $186K | +11.6% | |
| Warren (Tract 240006) | $459K | $633K | +37.9% | |
| Warren (Tract 160005) | $368K | $490K | +33.4% | |
| Warren (Tract 720005) | $407K | $528K | +29.9% | |
| Warren (Tract 200004) | $406K | $521K | +28.5% | |
| Warren (Tract 800006) | $437K | $559K | +27.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glens Falls | $167K | $186K | $76K | |
| Warrensburg | $173K | $191K | $117K | |
| Glens Falls | $217K | $248K | $115K | |
| Lake Luzerne | $222K | $232K | $111K | |
| Johnsburg | $220K | $230K | $105K | |
| Stony Creek area | $200K | $218K | $104K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
