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Sandoval, NM · Census Tract 35043200007 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$203K
Downside (P10)
$184K
-9% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$295K
+45% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$527K
+160% by 2030
Base case: +45% by 2030, with a forecast range from -9% to +160%. The model forecasts this with 36% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $203K | $242K | $253K | $263K | $295K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$39,315 | +$49,698 | +$60,478 | +$91,586 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +19.4% | +24.5% | +29.8% | +45.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $190K | $176K | $174K | $184K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $319K | $382K | $430K | $527K |
The upside and downside bands are unusually far apart. Treat the median path as one plausible case rather than a tight estimate.
Near-term band
$190K to $319K
53.1% of median
Long-horizon band
$184K to $527K
116.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 200007 | $203K | $295K | +45.1% | |
| Sandoval (Tract 120006) | $202K | $324K | +60.0% | |
| Sandoval (Tract 000003) | $213K | $324K | +52.0% | |
| Sandoval (Tract 160008) | $204K | $277K | +36.0% | |
| Rio Rancho | $200K | $218K | +9.0% | |
| Santo Domingo-San Felipe | $217K | $227K | +4.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 200007 | $203K | $295K | +45.1% | |
| Sandoval (Tract 120006) | $202K | $324K | +60.0% | |
| Sandoval (Tract 000003) | $213K | $324K | +52.0% | |
| Sandoval (Tract 160008) | $204K | $277K | +36.0% | |
| Rio Rancho (Tract 010725) | $328K | $379K | +15.3% | |
| Rio Rancho (Tract 010730) | $464K | $529K | +14.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 200007 | $203K | $295K | $343K | |
| Jemez-Zia | $334K | $341K | $81K | |
| Rio Rancho (Tract 010702) | $335K | $341K | $78K | |
| Cuba (Tract 010900) | $130K | $135K | $77K | |
| Rio Rancho (Tract 010715) | $289K | $299K | $70K | |
| Cuba (Tract 940900) | $56K | $60K | $37K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Sandoval, NM · Census Tract 35043200007 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$203K
Downside (P10)
$184K
-9% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$295K
+45% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$527K
+160% by 2030
Base case: +45% by 2030, with a forecast range from -9% to +160%. The model forecasts this with 36% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $203K | $242K | $253K | $263K | $295K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$39,315 | +$49,698 | +$60,478 | +$91,586 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +19.4% | +24.5% | +29.8% | +45.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $190K | $176K | $174K | $184K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $319K | $382K | $430K | $527K |
The upside and downside bands are unusually far apart. Treat the median path as one plausible case rather than a tight estimate.
Near-term band
$190K to $319K
53.1% of median
Long-horizon band
$184K to $527K
116.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 200007 | $203K | $295K | +45.1% | |
| Sandoval (Tract 120006) | $202K | $324K | +60.0% | |
| Sandoval (Tract 000003) | $213K | $324K | +52.0% | |
| Sandoval (Tract 160008) | $204K | $277K | +36.0% | |
| Rio Rancho | $200K | $218K | +9.0% | |
| Santo Domingo-San Felipe | $217K | $227K | +4.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 200007 | $203K | $295K | +45.1% | |
| Sandoval (Tract 120006) | $202K | $324K | +60.0% | |
| Sandoval (Tract 000003) | $213K | $324K | +52.0% | |
| Sandoval (Tract 160008) | $204K | $277K | +36.0% | |
| Rio Rancho (Tract 010725) | $328K | $379K | +15.3% | |
| Rio Rancho (Tract 010730) | $464K | $529K | +14.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 200007 | $203K | $295K | $343K | |
| Jemez-Zia | $334K | $341K | $81K | |
| Rio Rancho (Tract 010702) | $335K | $341K | $78K | |
| Cuba (Tract 010900) | $130K | $135K | $77K | |
| Rio Rancho (Tract 010715) | $289K | $299K | $70K | |
| Cuba (Tract 940900) | $56K | $60K | $37K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
