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Sandoval, NM · Census Tract 35043000003 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$213K
Downside (P10)
$185K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$324K
+52% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$550K
+158% by 2030
Base case: +52% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +158%. The model forecasts this with 38% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $213K | $258K | $269K | $281K | $324K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$44,884 | +$55,610 | +$67,421 | +$111,017 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +21.0% | +26.1% | +31.6% | +52.0% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $191K | $176K | $172K | $185K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $353K | $405K | $450K | $550K |
The upside and downside bands are unusually far apart. Treat the median path as one plausible case rather than a tight estimate.
Near-term band
$191K to $353K
62.6% of median
Long-horizon band
$185K to $550K
112.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000003 | $213K | $324K | +52.0% | |
| Sandoval (Tract 120006) | $202K | $324K | +60.0% | |
| Sandoval (Tract 200007) | $203K | $295K | +45.1% | |
| Sandoval (Tract 160008) | $204K | $277K | +36.0% | |
| Rio Rancho | $219K | $231K | +5.5% | |
| Santo Domingo-San Felipe | $217K | $227K | +4.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000003 | $213K | $324K | +52.0% | |
| Sandoval (Tract 120006) | $202K | $324K | +60.0% | |
| Sandoval (Tract 200007) | $203K | $295K | +45.1% | |
| Sandoval (Tract 160008) | $204K | $277K | +36.0% | |
| Rio Rancho (Tract 010725) | $328K | $379K | +15.3% | |
| Rio Rancho (Tract 010730) | $464K | $529K | +14.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000003 | $213K | $324K | $365K | |
| Jemez-Zia | $334K | $341K | $81K | |
| Rio Rancho (Tract 010702) | $335K | $341K | $78K | |
| Cuba (Tract 010900) | $130K | $135K | $77K | |
| Rio Rancho (Tract 010715) | $289K | $299K | $70K | |
| Cuba (Tract 940900) | $56K | $60K | $37K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Sandoval, NM · Census Tract 35043000003 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$213K
Downside (P10)
$185K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$324K
+52% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$550K
+158% by 2030
Base case: +52% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +158%. The model forecasts this with 38% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $213K | $258K | $269K | $281K | $324K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$44,884 | +$55,610 | +$67,421 | +$111,017 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +21.0% | +26.1% | +31.6% | +52.0% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $191K | $176K | $172K | $185K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $353K | $405K | $450K | $550K |
The upside and downside bands are unusually far apart. Treat the median path as one plausible case rather than a tight estimate.
Near-term band
$191K to $353K
62.6% of median
Long-horizon band
$185K to $550K
112.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000003 | $213K | $324K | +52.0% | |
| Sandoval (Tract 120006) | $202K | $324K | +60.0% | |
| Sandoval (Tract 200007) | $203K | $295K | +45.1% | |
| Sandoval (Tract 160008) | $204K | $277K | +36.0% | |
| Rio Rancho | $219K | $231K | +5.5% | |
| Santo Domingo-San Felipe | $217K | $227K | +4.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000003 | $213K | $324K | +52.0% | |
| Sandoval (Tract 120006) | $202K | $324K | +60.0% | |
| Sandoval (Tract 200007) | $203K | $295K | +45.1% | |
| Sandoval (Tract 160008) | $204K | $277K | +36.0% | |
| Rio Rancho (Tract 010725) | $328K | $379K | +15.3% | |
| Rio Rancho (Tract 010730) | $464K | $529K | +14.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000003 | $213K | $324K | $365K | |
| Jemez-Zia | $334K | $341K | $81K | |
| Rio Rancho (Tract 010702) | $335K | $341K | $78K | |
| Cuba (Tract 010900) | $130K | $135K | $77K | |
| Rio Rancho (Tract 010715) | $289K | $299K | $70K | |
| Cuba (Tract 940900) | $56K | $60K | $37K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
