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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Thurston, WA · ZIP 98516 · Census Tract 53067011500 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$445K
Downside (P10)
$385K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$488K
+10% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$692K
+55% by 2030
Base case: +10% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +55%. The model forecasts this with 65% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $188K | $195K | $214K | $223K | $240K | $268K | $301K | $378K | $409K | $444K | $445K | $476K | $472K | $488K | $463K |
| YoY Change | +3.8% | +9.7% | +4.2% | +7.6% | +11.8% | +12.3% | +25.7% | +8.1% | +8.6% | +0.2% | +6.9% | -0.9% | +3.4% | -5.1% | |
| Downside (P10) | $417K | $389K | $385K | $411K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $607K | $665K | $692K | $517K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$417K to $607K
39.9% of median
5-Year Spread
$411K to $517K
23.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympia | $444K | $488K | +9.8% | |
| Olympia | $445K | $504K | +13.2% | |
| Olympia East | $444K | $479K | +8.0% | |
| Tumwater | $445K | $479K | +7.6% | |
| Lacey (Tract 011410) | $445K | $475K | +6.7% | |
| Lacey (Tract 011625) | $447K | $474K | +6.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympia | $444K | $488K | +9.8% | |
| Olympia (Tract 012211) | $700K | $827K | +18.2% | |
| Thurston South (Tract 012620) | $388K | $454K | +17.0% | |
| Olympia East | $455K | $532K | +17.0% | |
| Thurston South (Tract 012532) | $579K | $663K | +14.5% | |
| Olympia (Tract 011722) | $557K | $636K | +14.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympia | $444K | $488K | $307K | |
| Olympia (Tract 010520) | $448K | $501K | $205K | |
| Olympia (Tract 011200) | $343K | $371K | $197K | |
| Thurston South | $424K | $443K | $194K | |
| Olympia (Tract 011300) | $315K | $345K | $165K | |
| Olympia (Tract 010510) | $94K | $101K | $75K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.