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Jefferson, WA · ZIP 98368 · Census Tract 53031950502 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$613K
Downside (P10)
$468K
-24% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$638K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$811K
+32% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -24% to +32%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $426K | $460K | $549K | $580K | $601K | $613K | $623K | $630K | $638K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$186,974 | -$153,474 | -$64,474 | -$33,574 | -$12,474 | +$10,046 | +$16,627 | +$24,782 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -30.5% | -25.0% | -10.5% | -5.5% | -2.0% | +1.6% | +2.7% | +4.0% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $487K | $484K | $468K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $721K | $730K | $811K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$487K to $721K
37.6% of median
Long-horizon band
$468K to $811K
53.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend | $598K | $638K | +6.8% | |
| Oak Bay-Port Ludlow (Tract 950302) | $644K | $716K | +11.1% | |
| Oak Bay-Port Ludlow (Tract 950301) | $668K | $737K | +10.3% | |
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend (Tract 950603) | $547K | $598K | +9.4% | |
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend (Tract 950604) | $602K | $612K | +1.7% | |
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend (Tract 950501) | $558K | $547K | -2.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend | $598K | $638K | +6.8% | |
| Quilcene Bay-Brinnon | $334K | $377K | +13.1% | |
| Oak Bay-Port Ludlow (Tract 950302) | $644K | $716K | +11.1% | |
| Oak Bay-Port Ludlow (Tract 950301) | $668K | $737K | +10.3% | |
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend | $547K | $598K | +9.4% | |
| Oak Bay-Port Ludlow (Tract 950400) | $403K | $430K | +6.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend | $598K | $638K | $343K | |
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend (Tract 950602) | $495K | $523K | $280K | |
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend (Tract 950501) | $558K | $547K | $262K | |
| Oak Bay-Port Ludlow | $403K | $430K | $213K | |
| Quilcene Bay-Brinnon | $334K | $377K | $157K | |
| West End | $258K | $275K | $152K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Jefferson, WA · ZIP 98368 · Census Tract 53031950502 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$613K
Downside (P10)
$468K
-24% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$638K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$811K
+32% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -24% to +32%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $426K | $460K | $549K | $580K | $601K | $613K | $623K | $630K | $638K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$186,974 | -$153,474 | -$64,474 | -$33,574 | -$12,474 | +$10,046 | +$16,627 | +$24,782 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -30.5% | -25.0% | -10.5% | -5.5% | -2.0% | +1.6% | +2.7% | +4.0% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $487K | $484K | $468K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $721K | $730K | $811K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$487K to $721K
37.6% of median
Long-horizon band
$468K to $811K
53.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend | $598K | $638K | +6.8% | |
| Oak Bay-Port Ludlow (Tract 950302) | $644K | $716K | +11.1% | |
| Oak Bay-Port Ludlow (Tract 950301) | $668K | $737K | +10.3% | |
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend (Tract 950603) | $547K | $598K | +9.4% | |
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend (Tract 950604) | $602K | $612K | +1.7% | |
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend (Tract 950501) | $558K | $547K | -2.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend | $598K | $638K | +6.8% | |
| Quilcene Bay-Brinnon | $334K | $377K | +13.1% | |
| Oak Bay-Port Ludlow (Tract 950302) | $644K | $716K | +11.1% | |
| Oak Bay-Port Ludlow (Tract 950301) | $668K | $737K | +10.3% | |
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend | $547K | $598K | +9.4% | |
| Oak Bay-Port Ludlow (Tract 950400) | $403K | $430K | +6.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend | $598K | $638K | $343K | |
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend (Tract 950602) | $495K | $523K | $280K | |
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend (Tract 950501) | $558K | $547K | $262K | |
| Oak Bay-Port Ludlow | $403K | $430K | $213K | |
| Quilcene Bay-Brinnon | $334K | $377K | $157K | |
| West End | $258K | $275K | $152K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
