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Jefferson, WA · ZIP 98339 · Census Tract 53031950400 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$404K
Downside (P10)
$323K
-20% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$430K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$536K
+33% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -20% to +33%. The model forecasts this with 73% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $205K | $218K | $234K | $245K | $276K | $298K | $329K | $350K | $368K | $392K | $404K | $406K | $425K | $430K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$199,326 | -$186,026 | -$169,926 | -$158,526 | -$127,926 | -$105,426 | -$75,126 | -$54,026 | -$35,926 | -$12,026 | +$1,756 | +$21,313 | +$26,012 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -49.4% | -46.1% | -42.1% | -39.3% | -31.7% | -26.1% | -18.6% | -13.4% | -8.9% | -3.0% | +0.4% | +5.3% | +6.4% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $358K | $334K | $323K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $484K | $539K | $536K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$358K to $484K
30.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$323K to $536K
49.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oak Bay-Port Ludlow | $403K | $430K | +6.7% | |
| Quilcene Bay-Brinnon | $334K | $377K | +13.1% | |
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend (Tract 950603) | $547K | $598K | +9.4% | |
| West End | $258K | $275K | +6.4% | |
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend (Tract 950602) | $495K | $523K | +5.6% | |
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend (Tract 950501) | $558K | $547K | -2.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oak Bay-Port Ludlow | $403K | $430K | +6.7% | |
| Quilcene Bay-Brinnon | $334K | $377K | +13.1% | |
| Oak Bay-Port Ludlow (Tract 950302) | $644K | $716K | +11.1% | |
| Oak Bay-Port Ludlow (Tract 950301) | $668K | $737K | +10.3% | |
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend (Tract 950603) | $547K | $598K | +9.4% | |
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend (Tract 950502) | $598K | $638K | +6.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oak Bay-Port Ludlow | $403K | $430K | $213K | |
| Oak Bay-Port Ludlow | $644K | $716K | $336K | |
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend (Tract 950602) | $495K | $523K | $280K | |
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend (Tract 950501) | $558K | $547K | $262K | |
| Quilcene Bay-Brinnon | $334K | $377K | $157K | |
| West End | $258K | $275K | $152K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Jefferson, WA · ZIP 98339 · Census Tract 53031950400 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$404K
Downside (P10)
$323K
-20% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$430K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$536K
+33% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -20% to +33%. The model forecasts this with 73% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $205K | $218K | $234K | $245K | $276K | $298K | $329K | $350K | $368K | $392K | $404K | $406K | $425K | $430K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$199,326 | -$186,026 | -$169,926 | -$158,526 | -$127,926 | -$105,426 | -$75,126 | -$54,026 | -$35,926 | -$12,026 | +$1,756 | +$21,313 | +$26,012 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -49.4% | -46.1% | -42.1% | -39.3% | -31.7% | -26.1% | -18.6% | -13.4% | -8.9% | -3.0% | +0.4% | +5.3% | +6.4% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $358K | $334K | $323K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $484K | $539K | $536K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$358K to $484K
30.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$323K to $536K
49.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oak Bay-Port Ludlow | $403K | $430K | +6.7% | |
| Quilcene Bay-Brinnon | $334K | $377K | +13.1% | |
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend (Tract 950603) | $547K | $598K | +9.4% | |
| West End | $258K | $275K | +6.4% | |
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend (Tract 950602) | $495K | $523K | +5.6% | |
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend (Tract 950501) | $558K | $547K | -2.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oak Bay-Port Ludlow | $403K | $430K | +6.7% | |
| Quilcene Bay-Brinnon | $334K | $377K | +13.1% | |
| Oak Bay-Port Ludlow (Tract 950302) | $644K | $716K | +11.1% | |
| Oak Bay-Port Ludlow (Tract 950301) | $668K | $737K | +10.3% | |
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend (Tract 950603) | $547K | $598K | +9.4% | |
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend (Tract 950502) | $598K | $638K | +6.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oak Bay-Port Ludlow | $403K | $430K | $213K | |
| Oak Bay-Port Ludlow | $644K | $716K | $336K | |
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend (Tract 950602) | $495K | $523K | $280K | |
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend (Tract 950501) | $558K | $547K | $262K | |
| Quilcene Bay-Brinnon | $334K | $377K | $157K | |
| West End | $258K | $275K | $152K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
