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Jefferson, WA · ZIP 98376 · Census Tract 53031950202 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$346K
Downside (P10)
$296K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$377K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$453K
+31% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +31%. The model forecasts this with 77% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $250K | $236K | $216K | $247K | $314K | $315K | $314K | $355K | $356K | $329K | $346K | $353K | $364K | $377K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$95,825 | -$110,625 | -$130,125 | -$98,825 | -$31,925 | -$30,925 | -$31,925 | +$8,475 | +$10,075 | -$17,225 | +$7,229 | +$17,293 | +$31,093 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -27.7% | -32.0% | -37.6% | -28.5% | -9.2% | -8.9% | -9.2% | +2.4% | +2.9% | -5.0% | +2.1% | +5.0% | +9.0% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $304K | $309K | $296K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $404K | $431K | $453K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$304K to $404K
28.3% of median
Long-horizon band
$296K to $453K
41.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quilcene Bay-Brinnon | $334K | $377K | +13.1% | |
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend (Tract 950603) | $547K | $598K | +9.4% | |
| Oak Bay-Port Ludlow | $403K | $430K | +6.7% | |
| West End | $258K | $275K | +6.4% | |
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend (Tract 950602) | $495K | $523K | +5.6% | |
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend (Tract 950501) | $558K | $547K | -2.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quilcene Bay-Brinnon | $334K | $377K | +13.1% | |
| Oak Bay-Port Ludlow (Tract 950302) | $644K | $716K | +11.1% | |
| Oak Bay-Port Ludlow (Tract 950301) | $668K | $737K | +10.3% | |
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend (Tract 950603) | $547K | $598K | +9.4% | |
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend (Tract 950502) | $598K | $638K | +6.8% | |
| Oak Bay-Port Ludlow (Tract 950400) | $403K | $430K | +6.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quilcene Bay-Brinnon | $334K | $377K | $157K | |
| Oak Bay-Port Ludlow (Tract 950302) | $644K | $716K | $336K | |
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend (Tract 950602) | $495K | $523K | $280K | |
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend (Tract 950501) | $558K | $547K | $262K | |
| Oak Bay-Port Ludlow (Tract 950400) | $403K | $430K | $213K | |
| West End | $258K | $275K | $152K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Jefferson, WA · ZIP 98376 · Census Tract 53031950202 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$346K
Downside (P10)
$296K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$377K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$453K
+31% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +31%. The model forecasts this with 77% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $250K | $236K | $216K | $247K | $314K | $315K | $314K | $355K | $356K | $329K | $346K | $353K | $364K | $377K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$95,825 | -$110,625 | -$130,125 | -$98,825 | -$31,925 | -$30,925 | -$31,925 | +$8,475 | +$10,075 | -$17,225 | +$7,229 | +$17,293 | +$31,093 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -27.7% | -32.0% | -37.6% | -28.5% | -9.2% | -8.9% | -9.2% | +2.4% | +2.9% | -5.0% | +2.1% | +5.0% | +9.0% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $304K | $309K | $296K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $404K | $431K | $453K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$304K to $404K
28.3% of median
Long-horizon band
$296K to $453K
41.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quilcene Bay-Brinnon | $334K | $377K | +13.1% | |
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend (Tract 950603) | $547K | $598K | +9.4% | |
| Oak Bay-Port Ludlow | $403K | $430K | +6.7% | |
| West End | $258K | $275K | +6.4% | |
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend (Tract 950602) | $495K | $523K | +5.6% | |
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend (Tract 950501) | $558K | $547K | -2.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quilcene Bay-Brinnon | $334K | $377K | +13.1% | |
| Oak Bay-Port Ludlow (Tract 950302) | $644K | $716K | +11.1% | |
| Oak Bay-Port Ludlow (Tract 950301) | $668K | $737K | +10.3% | |
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend (Tract 950603) | $547K | $598K | +9.4% | |
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend (Tract 950502) | $598K | $638K | +6.8% | |
| Oak Bay-Port Ludlow (Tract 950400) | $403K | $430K | +6.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quilcene Bay-Brinnon | $334K | $377K | $157K | |
| Oak Bay-Port Ludlow (Tract 950302) | $644K | $716K | $336K | |
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend (Tract 950602) | $495K | $523K | $280K | |
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend (Tract 950501) | $558K | $547K | $262K | |
| Oak Bay-Port Ludlow (Tract 950400) | $403K | $430K | $213K | |
| West End | $258K | $275K | $152K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
