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Lawrence, OH · ZIP 45638 · Census Tract 39087050900 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$104K
Downside (P10)
$99K
-5% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$116K
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$152K
+46% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -5% to +46%. The model forecasts this with 75% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $79K | $78K | $82K | $82K | $84K | $85K | $90K | $94K | $101K | $102K | $104K | $106K | $110K | $116K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$25,299 | -$26,399 | -$22,099 | -$22,899 | -$20,099 | -$19,699 | -$14,699 | -$10,099 | -$3,999 | -$2,299 | +$1,706 | +$5,161 | +$11,834 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -24.2% | -25.3% | -21.1% | -21.9% | -19.2% | -18.9% | -14.1% | -9.7% | -3.8% | -2.2% | +1.6% | +4.9% | +11.3% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $95K | $97K | $99K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $125K | $140K | $152K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$95K to $125K
28.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$99K to $152K
45.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upper · Ironton · (Tract 509) | $103K | $116K | +12.9% | |
| Ironton (Tract 050100) | $99K | $115K | +16.4% | |
| Aid area | $120K | $132K | +10.3% | |
| Elizabeth | $89K | $97K | +9.2% | |
| Ironton (Tract 050400) | $103K | $112K | +8.5% | |
| Ironton (Tract 050200) | $116K | $122K | +5.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upper · Ironton · (Tract 509) | $103K | $116K | +12.9% | |
| Lawrence (Tract 760101) | $126K | $172K | +37.2% | |
| Lawrence (Tract 440007) | $150K | $199K | +33.1% | |
| Lawrence (Tract 960008) | $53K | $67K | +27.0% | |
| Ironton | $99K | $115K | +16.4% | |
| Decatur area | $121K | $140K | +15.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upper · Ironton · (Tract 509) | $103K | $116K | $53K | |
| Ironton (Tract 050400) | $103K | $112K | $72K | |
| Perry | $146K | $152K | $71K | |
| South Point | $173K | $196K | $70K | |
| Ironton (Tract 050100) | $99K | $115K | $56K | |
| Elizabeth | $89K | $97K | $48K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Lawrence, OH · ZIP 45638 · Census Tract 39087050900 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$104K
Downside (P10)
$99K
-5% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$116K
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$152K
+46% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -5% to +46%. The model forecasts this with 75% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $79K | $78K | $82K | $82K | $84K | $85K | $90K | $94K | $101K | $102K | $104K | $106K | $110K | $116K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$25,299 | -$26,399 | -$22,099 | -$22,899 | -$20,099 | -$19,699 | -$14,699 | -$10,099 | -$3,999 | -$2,299 | +$1,706 | +$5,161 | +$11,834 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -24.2% | -25.3% | -21.1% | -21.9% | -19.2% | -18.9% | -14.1% | -9.7% | -3.8% | -2.2% | +1.6% | +4.9% | +11.3% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $95K | $97K | $99K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $125K | $140K | $152K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$95K to $125K
28.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$99K to $152K
45.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upper · Ironton · (Tract 509) | $103K | $116K | +12.9% | |
| Ironton (Tract 050100) | $99K | $115K | +16.4% | |
| Aid area | $120K | $132K | +10.3% | |
| Elizabeth | $89K | $97K | +9.2% | |
| Ironton (Tract 050400) | $103K | $112K | +8.5% | |
| Ironton (Tract 050200) | $116K | $122K | +5.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upper · Ironton · (Tract 509) | $103K | $116K | +12.9% | |
| Lawrence (Tract 760101) | $126K | $172K | +37.2% | |
| Lawrence (Tract 440007) | $150K | $199K | +33.1% | |
| Lawrence (Tract 960008) | $53K | $67K | +27.0% | |
| Ironton | $99K | $115K | +16.4% | |
| Decatur area | $121K | $140K | +15.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upper · Ironton · (Tract 509) | $103K | $116K | $53K | |
| Ironton (Tract 050400) | $103K | $112K | $72K | |
| Perry | $146K | $152K | $71K | |
| South Point | $173K | $196K | $70K | |
| Ironton (Tract 050100) | $99K | $115K | $56K | |
| Elizabeth | $89K | $97K | $48K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
