McKenzie, ND · ZIP 58634 · Census Tract 38053962302 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$450K
Downside (P10)
$363K
-19% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$482K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$647K
+44% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -19% to +44%. Uncertainty is narrow relative to similar McKenzie markets.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $354K | $307K | $352K | $388K | $419K | $429K | $450K | $461K | $480K | $482K |
| YoY Change | -13.1% | +14.4% | +10.4% | +7.8% | +2.4% | +4.9% | +2.6% | +4.1% | +0.4% | |
| Downside (P10) | $402K | $378K | $378K | $363K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $500K | $535K | $565K | $647K |
The forecast range is narrow for this market. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, though uncertainty widens modestly by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$405K to $468K
14.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$363K to $647K
58.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Watford City | $410K | $443K | +8.0% |
| North McKenzie area | $334K | $379K | +13.2% |
| Southwest McKenzie area | $310K | $330K | +6.2% |
| Fort Berthold | $167K | $180K | +7.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| North McKenzie area | $334K | $379K | +13.2% |
| Watford City | $410K | $443K | +8.0% |
| Fort Berthold | $167K | $180K | +7.5% |
| Southwest McKenzie area | $310K | $330K | +6.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fort Berthold | $167K | $180K | $100K |
| Southwest McKenzie area | $310K | $330K | $150K |
| Watford City | $410K | $443K | $218K |
| North McKenzie area | $334K | $379K | $253K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources