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McKenzie, ND · Census Tract 38053920002 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$614K
Downside (P10)
$338K
-45% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$621K
+1% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.11M
+82% by 2030
Base case: +1% by 2030, with a forecast range from -45% to +82%. The model forecasts this with 31% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $614K | $666K | $623K | $605K | $621K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$52,062 | +$9,675 | -$9,114 | +$7,665 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +8.5% | +1.6% | -1.5% | +1.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $412K | $371K | $336K | $338K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $949K | $1.0M | $1.0M | $1.1M |
The upside and downside bands are unusually far apart. Treat the median path as one plausible case rather than a tight estimate.
Near-term band
$412K to $949K
80.6% of median
Long-horizon band
$338K to $1.1M
124.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 920002 | $614K | $621K | +1.2% | |
| McKenzie (Tract 000003) | $523K | $759K | +44.9% | |
| Southeast McKenzie | $450K | $482K | +7.3% | |
| McKenzie (Tract 320000) | $662K | $687K | +3.7% | |
| North McKenzie area | $337K | $345K | +2.3% | |
| Watford City | $426K | $414K | -2.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 920002 | $614K | $621K | +1.2% | |
| McKenzie (Tract 000003) | $523K | $759K | +44.9% | |
| McKenzie (Tract 160008) | $275K | $387K | +40.5% | |
| McKenzie (Tract 240009) | $231K | $318K | +37.8% | |
| Southeast McKenzie | $450K | $482K | +7.3% | |
| Southwest McKenzie area | $311K | $330K | +5.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 920002 | $614K | $621K | $776K | |
| McKenzie | $275K | $387K | $247K | |
| Southwest McKenzie area | $311K | $330K | $150K | |
| Watford City | $426K | $414K | $113K | |
| Fort Berthold | $170K | $180K | $100K | |
| North McKenzie area | $337K | $345K | $87K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
McKenzie, ND · Census Tract 38053920002 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$614K
Downside (P10)
$338K
-45% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$621K
+1% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.11M
+82% by 2030
Base case: +1% by 2030, with a forecast range from -45% to +82%. The model forecasts this with 31% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $614K | $666K | $623K | $605K | $621K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$52,062 | +$9,675 | -$9,114 | +$7,665 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +8.5% | +1.6% | -1.5% | +1.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $412K | $371K | $336K | $338K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $949K | $1.0M | $1.0M | $1.1M |
The upside and downside bands are unusually far apart. Treat the median path as one plausible case rather than a tight estimate.
Near-term band
$412K to $949K
80.6% of median
Long-horizon band
$338K to $1.1M
124.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 920002 | $614K | $621K | +1.2% | |
| McKenzie (Tract 000003) | $523K | $759K | +44.9% | |
| Southeast McKenzie | $450K | $482K | +7.3% | |
| McKenzie (Tract 320000) | $662K | $687K | +3.7% | |
| North McKenzie area | $337K | $345K | +2.3% | |
| Watford City | $426K | $414K | -2.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 920002 | $614K | $621K | +1.2% | |
| McKenzie (Tract 000003) | $523K | $759K | +44.9% | |
| McKenzie (Tract 160008) | $275K | $387K | +40.5% | |
| McKenzie (Tract 240009) | $231K | $318K | +37.8% | |
| Southeast McKenzie | $450K | $482K | +7.3% | |
| Southwest McKenzie area | $311K | $330K | +5.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 920002 | $614K | $621K | $776K | |
| McKenzie | $275K | $387K | $247K | |
| Southwest McKenzie area | $311K | $330K | $150K | |
| Watford City | $426K | $414K | $113K | |
| Fort Berthold | $170K | $180K | $100K | |
| North McKenzie area | $337K | $345K | $87K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
