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Orange, FL · ZIP 32817 · Census Tract 12095016505 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$314K
Downside (P10)
$278K
-12% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$341K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$457K
+45% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +45%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $95K | $91K | $110K | $125K | $137K | $156K | $164K | $172K | $194K | $301K | $314K | $325K | $331K | $341K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$219,370 | -$223,470 | -$203,970 | -$189,070 | -$177,170 | -$158,570 | -$150,570 | -$142,070 | -$120,870 | -$13,070 | +$10,863 | +$16,526 | +$26,623 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -69.8% | -71.1% | -64.9% | -60.1% | -56.4% | -50.4% | -47.9% | -45.2% | -38.4% | -4.2% | +3.5% | +5.3% | +8.5% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $290K | $283K | $278K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $385K | $434K | $457K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$290K to $385K
29.3% of median
Long-horizon band
$278K to $457K
52.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Park · Orlando · (Tract 165.5) | $310K | $341K | +10.0% | |
| Winter Garden-Ocoee | $312K | $366K | +17.2% | |
| Union Park | $308K | $344K | +11.6% | |
| Orlando (Tract 015202) | $314K | $341K | +8.6% | |
| Ocoee | $315K | $341K | +8.1% | |
| Orlando (Tract 015204) | $314K | $332K | +5.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Park · Orlando · (Tract 165.5) | $310K | $341K | +10.0% | |
| Orlando (Tract 013604) | $280K | $342K | +21.9% | |
| Orlando (Tract 013510) | $159K | $191K | +20.5% | |
| Union Park | $409K | $491K | +19.9% | |
| Orlando (Tract 013405) | $170K | $201K | +18.7% | |
| Winter Garden-Ocoee | $294K | $348K | +18.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Park · Orlando · (Tract 165.5) | $310K | $341K | $179K | |
| Orlando (Tract 014302) | $179K | $190K | $99K | |
| University | $165K | $185K | $97K | |
| Orlando (Tract 013511) | $119K | $130K | $91K | |
| Orlando (Tract 011702) | $186K | $200K | $84K | |
| Union Park | $87K | $88K | $46K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Orange, FL · ZIP 32817 · Census Tract 12095016505 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$314K
Downside (P10)
$278K
-12% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$341K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$457K
+45% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +45%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $95K | $91K | $110K | $125K | $137K | $156K | $164K | $172K | $194K | $301K | $314K | $325K | $331K | $341K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$219,370 | -$223,470 | -$203,970 | -$189,070 | -$177,170 | -$158,570 | -$150,570 | -$142,070 | -$120,870 | -$13,070 | +$10,863 | +$16,526 | +$26,623 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -69.8% | -71.1% | -64.9% | -60.1% | -56.4% | -50.4% | -47.9% | -45.2% | -38.4% | -4.2% | +3.5% | +5.3% | +8.5% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $290K | $283K | $278K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $385K | $434K | $457K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$290K to $385K
29.3% of median
Long-horizon band
$278K to $457K
52.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Park · Orlando · (Tract 165.5) | $310K | $341K | +10.0% | |
| Winter Garden-Ocoee | $312K | $366K | +17.2% | |
| Union Park | $308K | $344K | +11.6% | |
| Orlando (Tract 015202) | $314K | $341K | +8.6% | |
| Ocoee | $315K | $341K | +8.1% | |
| Orlando (Tract 015204) | $314K | $332K | +5.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Park · Orlando · (Tract 165.5) | $310K | $341K | +10.0% | |
| Orlando (Tract 013604) | $280K | $342K | +21.9% | |
| Orlando (Tract 013510) | $159K | $191K | +20.5% | |
| Union Park | $409K | $491K | +19.9% | |
| Orlando (Tract 013405) | $170K | $201K | +18.7% | |
| Winter Garden-Ocoee | $294K | $348K | +18.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Park · Orlando · (Tract 165.5) | $310K | $341K | $179K | |
| Orlando (Tract 014302) | $179K | $190K | $99K | |
| University | $165K | $185K | $97K | |
| Orlando (Tract 013511) | $119K | $130K | $91K | |
| Orlando (Tract 011702) | $186K | $200K | $84K | |
| Union Park | $87K | $88K | $46K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
