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Orange, FL · ZIP 32789 · Census Tract 12095015802 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.17M
Downside (P10)
$984K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.23M
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.92M
+65% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +65%. The model forecasts this with 58% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $603K | $651K | $632K | $668K | $821K | $794K | $854K | $1.0M | $1.1M | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.2M |
| YoY Change | +7.8% | -2.8% | +5.7% | +22.9% | -3.3% | +7.6% | +21.3% | +5.5% | +6.9% | -0.1% | +5.7% | -1.1% | +0.9% | -1.9% | |
| Downside (P10) | $1.0M | $1.0M | $984K | $1.1M | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.5M | $1.7M | $1.9M | $1.4M |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$1.03M to $1.54M
40.8% of median
5-Year Spread
$1.08M to $1.37M
23.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winter Park | $1.19M | $1.23M | +3.8% | |
| Southwest Orange (Tract 014809) | $1.21M | $1.30M | +7.5% | |
| Winter Park (Tract 016100) | $974K | $1.03M | +6.0% | |
| Lake Butler | $965K | $1.09M | +13.2% | |
| Winter Park (Tract 016002) | $938K | $979K | +4.4% | |
| Southwest Orange (Tract 017120) | $854K | $918K | +7.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winter Park | $1.19M | $1.23M | +3.8% | |
| Conway | $280K | $342K | +21.9% | |
| Azalea Park (Tract 013510) | $159K | $191K | +20.5% | |
| Union Park | $409K | $491K | +19.9% | |
| Apopka | $229K | $274K | +19.5% | |
| Azalea Park (Tract 013405) | $170K | $201K | +18.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winter Park | $1.19M | $1.23M | $940K | |
| UCF | $87K | $88K | $46K | |
| Orlando (Tract 016906) | $119K | $128K | $61K | |
| Waterford Lakes | $133K | $145K | $76K | |
| International Drive | $147K | $170K | $83K | |
| Orlando (Tract 011702) | $186K | $200K | $84K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.