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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Tuolumne, CA · ZIP 95321 · Census Tract 06109004202 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$388K
Downside (P10)
$339K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$409K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$490K
+26% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +26%. The model forecasts this with 80% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $288K | $326K | $349K | $360K | $378K | $388K | $388K | $393K | $409K |
| YoY Change | +13.5% | +6.8% | +3.3% | +5.0% | +2.6% | +0.1% | +1.2% | +4.1% | |
| Downside (P10) | $348K | $348K | $339K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $441K | $466K | $490K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained, though uncertainty widens modestly by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$348K to $441K
24.2% of median
5-Year Spread
$339K to $490K
37.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Groveland | $383K | $409K | +6.8% | |
| Twain Harte-Tuolumne City (Tract 004201) | $421K | $493K | +17.2% | |
| Twain Harte-Tuolumne City (Tract 002102) | $405K | $457K | +13.0% | |
| Sonora area | $414K | $462K | +11.6% | |
| Twain Harte-Tuolumne City (Tract 003200) | $420K | $446K | +6.1% | |
| Sonora | $392K | $413K | +5.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Groveland | $383K | $409K | +6.8% | |
| Twain Harte-Tuolumne City (Tract 004201) | $421K | $493K | +17.2% | |
| Sonora (Tract 005102) | $447K | $520K | +16.4% | |
| East Sonora-Phoenix Lake | $344K | $393K | +14.3% | |
| Twain Harte-Tuolumne City (Tract 002101) | $422K | $481K | +14.1% | |
| Sonora (Tract 001200) | $549K | $623K | +13.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Groveland | $383K | $409K | $152K | |
| Twain Harte-Tuolumne City (Tract 003103) | $441K | $487K | $200K | |
| Sonora (Tract 001100) | $438K | $464K | $200K | |
| East Sonora-Phoenix Lake | $344K | $393K | $194K | |
| Sonora (Tract 005101) | $392K | $413K | $188K | |
| Twain Harte-Tuolumne City (Tract 002102) | $405K | $457K | $185K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.