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Shasta, CA · ZIP 96019 · Census Tract 06089011701 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$380K
Downside (P10)
$326K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$413K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$576K
+52% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +52%. The model forecasts this with 67% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $237K | $242K | $254K | $270K | $285K | $301K | $309K | $344K | $354K | $376K | $380K | $390K | $411K | $413K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$143,569 | -$137,769 | -$125,869 | -$109,769 | -$95,269 | -$79,369 | -$71,369 | -$35,669 | -$26,169 | -$4,269 | +$10,136 | +$31,337 | +$32,731 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -37.8% | -36.2% | -33.1% | -28.9% | -25.1% | -20.9% | -18.8% | -9.4% | -6.9% | -1.1% | +2.7% | +8.2% | +8.6% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $327K | $315K | $326K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $469K | $494K | $576K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$327K to $469K
36.5% of median
Long-horizon band
$326K to $576K
60.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shasta Lake | $383K | $413K | +7.9% | |
| Redding (Tract 010500) | $377K | $422K | +12.1% | |
| Redding (Tract 011002) | $374K | $412K | +10.1% | |
| Redding (Tract 010703) | $391K | $423K | +8.1% | |
| Redding (Tract 012102) | $383K | $413K | +8.0% | |
| Redding (Tract 010803) | $387K | $417K | +7.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shasta Lake | $383K | $413K | +7.9% | |
| Redding (Tract 010200) | $330K | $395K | +19.8% | |
| Redding (Tract 011401) | $396K | $460K | +16.2% | |
| Redding (Tract 011209) | $347K | $403K | +16.0% | |
| Redding (Tract 010400) | $368K | $426K | +15.6% | |
| Redding (Tract 012200) | $275K | $317K | +15.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shasta Lake | $383K | $413K | $250K | |
| Central Shasta | $276K | $295K | $162K | |
| Redding (Tract 011300) | $290K | $323K | $154K | |
| Redding (Tract 010100) | $251K | $271K | $148K | |
| Redding (Tract 010803) | $387K | $417K | $146K | |
| Redding (Tract 010806) | $158K | $177K | $114K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Shasta, CA · ZIP 96019 · Census Tract 06089011701 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$380K
Downside (P10)
$326K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$413K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$576K
+52% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +52%. The model forecasts this with 67% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $237K | $242K | $254K | $270K | $285K | $301K | $309K | $344K | $354K | $376K | $380K | $390K | $411K | $413K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$143,569 | -$137,769 | -$125,869 | -$109,769 | -$95,269 | -$79,369 | -$71,369 | -$35,669 | -$26,169 | -$4,269 | +$10,136 | +$31,337 | +$32,731 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -37.8% | -36.2% | -33.1% | -28.9% | -25.1% | -20.9% | -18.8% | -9.4% | -6.9% | -1.1% | +2.7% | +8.2% | +8.6% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $327K | $315K | $326K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $469K | $494K | $576K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$327K to $469K
36.5% of median
Long-horizon band
$326K to $576K
60.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shasta Lake | $383K | $413K | +7.9% | |
| Redding (Tract 010500) | $377K | $422K | +12.1% | |
| Redding (Tract 011002) | $374K | $412K | +10.1% | |
| Redding (Tract 010703) | $391K | $423K | +8.1% | |
| Redding (Tract 012102) | $383K | $413K | +8.0% | |
| Redding (Tract 010803) | $387K | $417K | +7.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shasta Lake | $383K | $413K | +7.9% | |
| Redding (Tract 010200) | $330K | $395K | +19.8% | |
| Redding (Tract 011401) | $396K | $460K | +16.2% | |
| Redding (Tract 011209) | $347K | $403K | +16.0% | |
| Redding (Tract 010400) | $368K | $426K | +15.6% | |
| Redding (Tract 012200) | $275K | $317K | +15.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shasta Lake | $383K | $413K | $250K | |
| Central Shasta | $276K | $295K | $162K | |
| Redding (Tract 011300) | $290K | $323K | $154K | |
| Redding (Tract 010100) | $251K | $271K | $148K | |
| Redding (Tract 010803) | $387K | $417K | $146K | |
| Redding (Tract 010806) | $158K | $177K | $114K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
