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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
San Mateo, CA · ZIP 94404 · Census Tract 06081608013 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.97M
Downside (P10)
$1.44M
-27% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$2.05M
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$2.85M
+44% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -27% to +44%. The model forecasts this with 62% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.0M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.2M | $1.3M | $1.5M | $1.6M | $1.9M | $2.0M | $1.9M | $2.0M | $2.0M | $2.0M | $2.0M |
| YoY Change | +4.7% | +6.4% | +5.7% | +9.1% | +13.0% | +8.7% | +16.6% | +6.8% | -4.0% | +2.7% | +3.1% | +0.7% | -0.1% | |
| Downside (P10) | $1.6M | $1.6M | $1.4M | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $2.6M | $2.5M | $2.8M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$1.62M to $2.57M
46.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$1.44M to $2.85M
68.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foster City · San Mateo · (Tract 6080.13) | $1.92M | $2.05M | +6.3% | |
| Belmont | $1.97M | $2.23M | +12.9% | |
| South San Francisco | $1.97M | $2.15M | +9.5% | |
| Foster City | $1.97M | $2.15M | +8.6% | |
| Menlo Park | $1.97M | $2.12M | +7.4% | |
| San Mateo | $1.97M | $1.98M | +0.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foster City · San Mateo · (Tract 6080.13) | $1.92M | $2.05M | +6.3% | |
| Redwood City (Tract 610303) | $2.02M | $2.51M | +23.9% | |
| Redwood City (Tract 610902) | $1.45M | $1.74M | +20.5% | |
| Half Moon Bay | $1.48M | $1.77M | +19.7% | |
| Millbrae | $1.21M | $1.43M | +18.6% | |
| South San Francisco | $324K | $384K | +18.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foster City · San Mateo · (Tract 6080.13) | $1.92M | $2.05M | $1.41M | |
| Daly City | $672K | $700K | $369K | |
| San Bruno (Tract 604102) | $664K | $707K | $363K | |
| San Bruno (Tract 603801) | $632K | $668K | $265K | |
| South San Francisco | $324K | $384K | $225K | |
| Redwood City | $276K | $321K | $181K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.