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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Napa, CA · ZIP 94558 · Census Tract 06055201200 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$599K
Downside (P10)
$506K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$634K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$795K
+33% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +33%. The model forecasts this with 75% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $321K | $358K | $449K | $513K | $551K | $572K | $564K | $562K | $579K | $594K | $599K | $619K | $648K | $634K |
| YoY Change | +11.7% | +25.5% | +14.0% | +7.6% | +3.7% | -1.3% | -0.4% | +2.9% | +2.6% | +0.9% | +3.4% | +4.7% | -2.2% | |
| Downside (P10) | $514K | $490K | $506K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $748K | $767K | $795K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$514K to $748K
37.8% of median
5-Year Spread
$506K to $795K
45.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napa · 94558 · (Tract 2012) | $592K | $634K | +7.2% | |
| Napa (Tract 201004) | $547K | $643K | +17.5% | |
| American Canyon (Tract 201006) | $687K | $773K | +12.6% | |
| Napa (Tract 200804) | $707K | $762K | +7.8% | |
| American Canyon (Tract 201007) | $667K | $713K | +6.9% | |
| Napa (Tract 200501) | $652K | $694K | +6.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napa · 94558 · (Tract 2012) | $592K | $634K | +7.2% | |
| Napa (Tract 201004) | $547K | $643K | +17.5% | |
| Napa (Tract 200703) | $1.09M | $1.25M | +15.2% | |
| Napa (Tract 201101) | $1.01M | $1.17M | +14.8% | |
| Napa (Tract 200503) | $985K | $1.13M | +14.5% | |
| Napa (Tract 200505) | $891K | $1.02M | +14.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napa · 94558 · (Tract 2012) | $592K | $634K | $289K | |
| Napa (Tract 200504) | $733K | $813K | $417K | |
| Napa (Tract 200302) | $853K | $925K | $372K | |
| American Canyon | $667K | $713K | $315K | |
| Napa (Tract 201004) | $547K | $643K | $314K | |
| Lake Berryessa | $464K | $485K | $215K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.