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Napa, CA · ZIP 94558 · Census Tract 06055200804 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$708K
Downside (P10)
$580K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$762K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.06M
+49% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +49%. The model forecasts this with 66% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $296K | $320K | $370K | $393K | $441K | $467K | $469K | $601K | $618K | $687K | $708K | $732K | $755K | $762K | $717K |
| YoY Change | +8.0% | +15.7% | +6.1% | +12.3% | +6.0% | +0.3% | +28.3% | +2.8% | +11.2% | +3.1% | +3.4% | +3.1% | +0.9% | -5.9% | |
| Downside (P10) | $610K | $585K | $580K | $630K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $870K | $949K | $1.1M | $824K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$610K to $870K
35.5% of median
5-Year Spread
$630K to $824K
27.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napa | $707K | $762K | +7.8% | |
| Napa (Tract 200704) | $731K | $830K | +13.5% | |
| American Canyon (Tract 201006) | $687K | $773K | +12.6% | |
| Napa (Tract 200504) | $733K | $813K | +11.0% | |
| American Canyon (Tract 201007) | $667K | $713K | +6.9% | |
| Napa (Tract 200501) | $652K | $694K | +6.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napa | $707K | $762K | +7.8% | |
| Napa (Tract 201004) | $547K | $643K | +17.5% | |
| Napa (Tract 200703) | $1.09M | $1.25M | +15.2% | |
| Napa (Tract 201101) | $1.01M | $1.17M | +14.8% | |
| Napa (Tract 200503) | $985K | $1.13M | +14.5% | |
| Napa (Tract 200505) | $891K | $1.02M | +14.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napa | $707K | $762K | $477K | |
| Napa (Tract 200302) | $853K | $925K | $372K | |
| American Canyon | $667K | $713K | $315K | |
| Napa (Tract 201004) | $547K | $643K | $314K | |
| Napa (Tract 201200) | $592K | $634K | $289K | |
| Lake Berryessa | $464K | $485K | $215K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.