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Merced, CA · ZIP 95324 · Census Tract 06047000404 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$493K
Downside (P10)
$386K
-22% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$535K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$747K
+52% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -22% to +52%. The model forecasts this with 63% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $353K | $351K | $445K | $478K | $488K | $493K | $494K | $514K | $535K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$140,350 | -$142,450 | -$48,150 | -$14,850 | -$5,550 | +$939 | +$21,305 | +$42,314 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -28.5% | -28.9% | -9.8% | -3.0% | -1.1% | +0.2% | +4.3% | +8.6% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $415K | $415K | $386K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $615K | $695K | $747K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$415K to $615K
40.5% of median
Long-horizon band
$386K to $747K
67.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hilmar-Irwin · Hilmar · (Tract 4.4) | $486K | $535K | +10.1% | |
| Dos Palos | $481K | $550K | +14.5% | |
| Merced (Tract 000901) | $489K | $544K | +11.4% | |
| Los Banos (Tract 002301) | $489K | $540K | +10.5% | |
| Merced (Tract 002602) | $483K | $507K | +5.0% | |
| Los Banos (Tract 002100) | $521K | $539K | +3.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hilmar-Irwin · Hilmar · (Tract 4.4) | $486K | $535K | +10.1% | |
| Gustine | $436K | $522K | +19.8% | |
| Merced (Tract 001006) | $418K | $495K | +18.3% | |
| Livingston-Delhi | $443K | $523K | +18.0% | |
| Los Banos | $540K | $637K | +17.9% | |
| Merced (Tract 001700) | $321K | $371K | +15.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hilmar-Irwin · Hilmar · (Tract 4.4) | $486K | $535K | $361K | |
| Livingston-Delhi | $315K | $337K | $161K | |
| Dos Palos | $296K | $301K | $154K | |
| Merced (Tract 001503) | $214K | $230K | $151K | |
| Planada-Le Grand | $291K | $312K | $142K | |
| Merced (Tract 000903) | $242K | $270K | $110K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Merced, CA · ZIP 95324 · Census Tract 06047000404 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$493K
Downside (P10)
$386K
-22% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$535K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$747K
+52% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -22% to +52%. The model forecasts this with 63% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $353K | $351K | $445K | $478K | $488K | $493K | $494K | $514K | $535K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$140,350 | -$142,450 | -$48,150 | -$14,850 | -$5,550 | +$939 | +$21,305 | +$42,314 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -28.5% | -28.9% | -9.8% | -3.0% | -1.1% | +0.2% | +4.3% | +8.6% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $415K | $415K | $386K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $615K | $695K | $747K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$415K to $615K
40.5% of median
Long-horizon band
$386K to $747K
67.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hilmar-Irwin · Hilmar · (Tract 4.4) | $486K | $535K | +10.1% | |
| Dos Palos | $481K | $550K | +14.5% | |
| Merced (Tract 000901) | $489K | $544K | +11.4% | |
| Los Banos (Tract 002301) | $489K | $540K | +10.5% | |
| Merced (Tract 002602) | $483K | $507K | +5.0% | |
| Los Banos (Tract 002100) | $521K | $539K | +3.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hilmar-Irwin · Hilmar · (Tract 4.4) | $486K | $535K | +10.1% | |
| Gustine | $436K | $522K | +19.8% | |
| Merced (Tract 001006) | $418K | $495K | +18.3% | |
| Livingston-Delhi | $443K | $523K | +18.0% | |
| Los Banos | $540K | $637K | +17.9% | |
| Merced (Tract 001700) | $321K | $371K | +15.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hilmar-Irwin · Hilmar · (Tract 4.4) | $486K | $535K | $361K | |
| Livingston-Delhi | $315K | $337K | $161K | |
| Dos Palos | $296K | $301K | $154K | |
| Merced (Tract 001503) | $214K | $230K | $151K | |
| Planada-Le Grand | $291K | $312K | $142K | |
| Merced (Tract 000903) | $242K | $270K | $110K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
