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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Merced, CA · ZIP 93635 · Census Tract 06047002100 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$518K
Downside (P10)
$444K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$539K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$747K
+44% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +44%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $241K | $236K | $251K | $320K | $339K | $355K | $473K | $533K | $574K | $511K | $518K | $527K | $538K | $539K |
| YoY Change | -1.9% | +6.0% | +27.7% | +5.8% | +4.8% | +33.2% | +12.7% | +7.7% | -11.0% | +1.4% | +1.7% | +2.1% | +0.1% | |
| Downside (P10) | $458K | $447K | $444K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $627K | $699K | $747K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$458K to $627K
32.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$444K to $747K
56.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Banos | $521K | $539K | +3.5% | |
| Los Banos (Tract 002304) | $540K | $637K | +17.9% | |
| Merced (Tract 000901) | $489K | $544K | +11.4% | |
| Los Banos (Tract 002301) | $489K | $540K | +10.5% | |
| Hilmar-Irwin | $486K | $535K | +10.1% | |
| Merced (Tract 001801) | $540K | $583K | +7.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Banos | $521K | $539K | +3.5% | |
| Gustine | $436K | $522K | +19.8% | |
| Merced (Tract 001006) | $418K | $495K | +18.3% | |
| Livingston-Delhi | $443K | $523K | +18.0% | |
| Los Banos | $540K | $637K | +17.9% | |
| Merced (Tract 001700) | $321K | $371K | +15.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Banos | $521K | $539K | $303K | |
| Livingston-Delhi | $315K | $337K | $161K | |
| Dos Palos | $296K | $301K | $154K | |
| Merced (Tract 001503) | $214K | $230K | $151K | |
| Planada-Le Grand | $291K | $312K | $142K | |
| Merced (Tract 000903) | $242K | $270K | $110K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.