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Lake, CA · ZIP 95422 · Census Tract 06033000702 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$196K
Downside (P10)
$165K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$217K
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$295K
+50% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +50%. The model forecasts this with 67% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $80K | $79K | $91K | $111K | $113K | $118K | $142K | $190K | $191K | $192K | $196K | $198K | $213K | $217K |
| YoY Change | -1.6% | +15.7% | +21.8% | +1.4% | +4.7% | +20.1% | +33.5% | +0.9% | +0.4% | +2.1% | +1.0% | +7.6% | +1.9% | |
| Downside (P10) | $170K | $175K | $165K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $245K | $260K | $295K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$170K to $245K
37.6% of median
5-Year Spread
$165K to $295K
59.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clearlake area | $197K | $217K | +10.2% | |
| Clearlake (Tract 000704) | $200K | $209K | +4.7% | |
| Clearlake (Tract 000703) | $187K | $200K | +7.2% | |
| Upper Lake-Nice | $206K | $208K | +1.0% | |
| Clearlake (Tract 000802) | $239K | $263K | +10.1% | |
| Clearlake (Tract 000801) | $241K | $265K | +10.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clearlake area | $197K | $217K | +10.2% | |
| Lakeport | $249K | $281K | +12.5% | |
| Lower Lake | $487K | $543K | +11.5% | |
| Upper Lake-Nice | $385K | $429K | +11.2% | |
| Lucerne-Clearlake Oaks | $266K | $295K | +10.8% | |
| Cobb | $322K | $355K | +10.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clearlake area | $197K | $217K | $130K | |
| Clearlake (Tract 000704) | $200K | $209K | $107K | |
| Clearlake (Tract 000703) | $187K | $200K | $115K | |
| Upper Lake-Nice | $206K | $208K | $123K | |
| Lucerne-Clearlake Oaks | $242K | $262K | $131K | |
| Cobb | $322K | $355K | $133K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.