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Lake, CA · ZIP 95485 · Census Tract 06033000100 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$394K
Downside (P10)
$347K
-12% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$429K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$547K
+39% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +39%. The model forecasts this with 74% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $200K | $236K | $255K | $290K | $353K | $353K | $400K | $403K | $362K | $378K | $394K | $399K | $418K | $429K |
| YoY Change | +17.6% | +8.2% | +13.7% | +21.9% | +0.1% | +13.0% | +0.8% | -10.1% | +4.3% | +4.2% | +1.4% | +4.7% | +2.6% | |
| Downside (P10) | $334K | $345K | $347K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $495K | $518K | $547K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$334K to $495K
40.5% of median
5-Year Spread
$347K to $547K
46.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upper Lake-Nice | $385K | $429K | +11.2% | |
| Middletown | $420K | $462K | +9.9% | |
| Hidden Valley Lake | $395K | $429K | +8.6% | |
| Lucerne-Clearlake Oaks | $384K | $413K | +7.4% | |
| Lakeport | $385K | $411K | +6.7% | |
| Clearlake Riviera | $395K | $406K | +2.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upper Lake-Nice | $385K | $429K | +11.2% | |
| Lakeport | $249K | $281K | +12.5% | |
| Lower Lake | $487K | $543K | +11.5% | |
| Lucerne-Clearlake Oaks | $266K | $295K | +10.8% | |
| Cobb | $322K | $355K | +10.2% | |
| Clearlake area | $197K | $217K | +10.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upper Lake-Nice | $385K | $429K | $200K | |
| Lucerne-Clearlake Oaks | $242K | $262K | $131K | |
| Clearlake area | $197K | $217K | $130K | |
| Upper Lake-Nice | $206K | $208K | $123K | |
| Clearlake (Tract 000703) | $187K | $200K | $115K | |
| Clearlake (Tract 000704) | $200K | $209K | $107K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.