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Pinal, AZ · ZIP 85194 · Census Tract 04021001408 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$391K
Downside (P10)
$353K
-10% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$437K
+12% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$611K
+56% by 2030
Base case: +12% by 2030, with a forecast range from -10% to +56%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $195K | $199K | $203K | $218K | $229K | $236K | $243K | $306K | $346K | $375K | $391K | $411K | $431K | $437K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$195,842 | -$192,242 | -$188,242 | -$173,342 | -$162,442 | -$154,642 | -$147,842 | -$85,442 | -$44,842 | -$16,542 | +$19,802 | +$39,875 | +$46,159 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -50.1% | -49.2% | -48.1% | -44.3% | -41.5% | -39.5% | -37.8% | -21.8% | -11.5% | -4.2% | +5.1% | +10.2% | +11.8% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $360K | $356K | $353K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $476K | $542K | $611K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$360K to $476K
28.3% of median
Long-horizon band
$353K to $611K
58.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Grande | $382K | $437K | +14.3% | |
| Maricopa | $389K | $447K | +14.9% | |
| Maricopa-Stanfield (Tract 001712) | $388K | $414K | +6.6% | |
| San Tan Valley (Tract 000227) | $387K | $411K | +6.5% | |
| Maricopa-Stanfield (Tract 001715) | $386K | $399K | +3.5% | |
| San Tan Valley (Tract 000226) | $386K | $387K | +0.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Grande | $382K | $437K | +14.3% | |
| North Pinal | $600K | $697K | +16.2% | |
| Maricopa (Tract 001714) | $362K | $420K | +16.0% | |
| Maricopa (Tract 001716) | $389K | $447K | +14.9% | |
| San Tan Valley | $458K | $525K | +14.7% | |
| Florence | $169K | $194K | +14.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Grande | $382K | $437K | $257K | |
| North Pinal (Tract 000317) | $84K | $88K | $68K | |
| Eloy (Tract 001900) | $150K | $161K | $65K | |
| Eloy (Tract 002004) | $140K | $154K | $63K | |
| North Pinal (Tract 002300) | $134K | $150K | $62K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Pinal, AZ · ZIP 85194 · Census Tract 04021001408 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$391K
Downside (P10)
$353K
-10% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$437K
+12% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$611K
+56% by 2030
Base case: +12% by 2030, with a forecast range from -10% to +56%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $195K | $199K | $203K | $218K | $229K | $236K | $243K | $306K | $346K | $375K | $391K | $411K | $431K | $437K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$195,842 | -$192,242 | -$188,242 | -$173,342 | -$162,442 | -$154,642 | -$147,842 | -$85,442 | -$44,842 | -$16,542 | +$19,802 | +$39,875 | +$46,159 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -50.1% | -49.2% | -48.1% | -44.3% | -41.5% | -39.5% | -37.8% | -21.8% | -11.5% | -4.2% | +5.1% | +10.2% | +11.8% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $360K | $356K | $353K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $476K | $542K | $611K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$360K to $476K
28.3% of median
Long-horizon band
$353K to $611K
58.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Grande | $382K | $437K | +14.3% | |
| Maricopa | $389K | $447K | +14.9% | |
| Maricopa-Stanfield (Tract 001712) | $388K | $414K | +6.6% | |
| San Tan Valley (Tract 000227) | $387K | $411K | +6.5% | |
| Maricopa-Stanfield (Tract 001715) | $386K | $399K | +3.5% | |
| San Tan Valley (Tract 000226) | $386K | $387K | +0.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Grande | $382K | $437K | +14.3% | |
| North Pinal | $600K | $697K | +16.2% | |
| Maricopa (Tract 001714) | $362K | $420K | +16.0% | |
| Maricopa (Tract 001716) | $389K | $447K | +14.9% | |
| San Tan Valley | $458K | $525K | +14.7% | |
| Florence | $169K | $194K | +14.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Grande | $382K | $437K | $257K | |
| North Pinal (Tract 000317) | $84K | $88K | $68K | |
| Eloy (Tract 001900) | $150K | $161K | $65K | |
| Eloy (Tract 002004) | $140K | $154K | $63K | |
| North Pinal (Tract 002300) | $134K | $150K | $62K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
