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Pinal, AZ · ZIP 85143 · Census Tract 04021000212 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$342K
Downside (P10)
$287K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$358K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$483K
+41% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +41%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $138K | $147K | $161K | $174K | $185K | $202K | $226K | $270K | $295K | $344K | $342K | $344K | $354K | $358K | $356K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$204,128 | -$195,328 | -$180,828 | -$168,028 | -$156,928 | -$139,428 | -$116,328 | -$71,528 | -$47,128 | +$1,972 | +$2,266 | +$12,491 | +$16,213 | +$14,185 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -59.7% | -57.1% | -52.9% | -49.2% | -45.9% | -40.8% | -34.0% | -20.9% | -13.8% | +0.6% | +0.7% | +3.7% | +4.7% | +4.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $294K | $304K | $287K | $317K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $400K | $439K | $483K | $405K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$294K to $400K
31.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$317K to $405K
24.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Tan Valley · 85143 · (Tract 2.12) | $346K | $358K | +3.6% | |
| Casa Grande (Tract 001306) | $335K | $374K | +11.5% | |
| Casa Grande (Tract 001404) | $339K | $374K | +10.1% | |
| Florence | $354K | $377K | +6.8% | |
| Casa Grande (Tract 001308) | $343K | $364K | +6.2% | |
| Casa Grande (Tract 001310) | $343K | $361K | +5.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Tan Valley · 85143 · (Tract 2.12) | $346K | $358K | +3.6% | |
| North Pinal | $600K | $697K | +16.2% | |
| Maricopa (Tract 001714) | $362K | $420K | +16.0% | |
| Maricopa (Tract 001716) | $389K | $447K | +14.9% | |
| San Tan Valley | $458K | $525K | +14.7% | |
| Florence | $169K | $194K | +14.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Tan Valley · 85143 · (Tract 2.12) | $346K | $358K | $197K | |
| North Pinal (Tract 000317) | $84K | $88K | $68K | |
| Eloy (Tract 001900) | $150K | $161K | $65K | |
| Eloy (Tract 002004) | $140K | $154K | $63K | |
| North Pinal (Tract 002300) | $134K | $150K | $62K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Pinal, AZ · ZIP 85143 · Census Tract 04021000212 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$342K
Downside (P10)
$287K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$358K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$483K
+41% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +41%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $138K | $147K | $161K | $174K | $185K | $202K | $226K | $270K | $295K | $344K | $342K | $344K | $354K | $358K | $356K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$204,128 | -$195,328 | -$180,828 | -$168,028 | -$156,928 | -$139,428 | -$116,328 | -$71,528 | -$47,128 | +$1,972 | +$2,266 | +$12,491 | +$16,213 | +$14,185 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -59.7% | -57.1% | -52.9% | -49.2% | -45.9% | -40.8% | -34.0% | -20.9% | -13.8% | +0.6% | +0.7% | +3.7% | +4.7% | +4.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $294K | $304K | $287K | $317K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $400K | $439K | $483K | $405K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$294K to $400K
31.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$317K to $405K
24.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Tan Valley · 85143 · (Tract 2.12) | $346K | $358K | +3.6% | |
| Casa Grande (Tract 001306) | $335K | $374K | +11.5% | |
| Casa Grande (Tract 001404) | $339K | $374K | +10.1% | |
| Florence | $354K | $377K | +6.8% | |
| Casa Grande (Tract 001308) | $343K | $364K | +6.2% | |
| Casa Grande (Tract 001310) | $343K | $361K | +5.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Tan Valley · 85143 · (Tract 2.12) | $346K | $358K | +3.6% | |
| North Pinal | $600K | $697K | +16.2% | |
| Maricopa (Tract 001714) | $362K | $420K | +16.0% | |
| Maricopa (Tract 001716) | $389K | $447K | +14.9% | |
| San Tan Valley | $458K | $525K | +14.7% | |
| Florence | $169K | $194K | +14.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Tan Valley · 85143 · (Tract 2.12) | $346K | $358K | $197K | |
| North Pinal (Tract 000317) | $84K | $88K | $68K | |
| Eloy (Tract 001900) | $150K | $161K | $65K | |
| Eloy (Tract 002004) | $140K | $154K | $63K | |
| North Pinal (Tract 002300) | $134K | $150K | $62K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
