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Pinal, AZ · ZIP 85138 · Census Tract 04021001705 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$378K
Downside (P10)
$316K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$413K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$551K
+46% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +46%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $129K | $148K | $171K | $201K | $217K | $223K | $239K | $298K | $325K | $376K | $378K | $387K | $399K | $413K |
| YoY Change | +14.8% | +15.2% | +17.8% | +7.7% | +3.0% | +7.1% | +24.8% | +8.8% | +15.9% | +0.4% | +2.3% | +3.1% | +3.6% | |
| Downside (P10) | $324K | $328K | $316K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $471K | $508K | $551K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$324K to $471K
38.1% of median
5-Year Spread
$316K to $551K
56.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maricopa · 85138 · (Tract 17.5) | $374K | $413K | +10.4% | |
| San Tan Valley (Tract 000219) | $377K | $425K | +12.7% | |
| Casa Grande (Tract 001408) | $382K | $437K | +14.3% | |
| San Tan Valley (Tract 000218) | $383K | $399K | +4.2% | |
| Casa Grande (Tract 001309) | $370K | $410K | +10.8% | |
| Maricopa-Stanfield | $386K | $399K | +3.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maricopa · 85138 · (Tract 17.5) | $374K | $413K | +10.4% | |
| North Pinal | $600K | $697K | +16.2% | |
| Maricopa (Tract 001714) | $362K | $420K | +16.0% | |
| Maricopa (Tract 001716) | $389K | $447K | +14.9% | |
| San Tan Valley | $458K | $525K | +14.7% | |
| Florence | $169K | $194K | +14.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maricopa · 85138 · (Tract 17.5) | $374K | $413K | $235K | |
| North Pinal (Tract 002300) | $134K | $150K | $62K | |
| Eloy (Tract 002004) | $140K | $154K | $63K | |
| Eloy (Tract 001900) | $150K | $161K | $65K | |
| North Pinal (Tract 000317) | $84K | $88K | $68K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.