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Pinal, AZ · ZIP 85123 · Census Tract 04021002104 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$254K
Downside (P10)
$212K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$275K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$403K
+59% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +59%. The model forecasts this with 62% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $124K | $154K | $208K | $236K | $246K | $254K | $253K | $266K | $275K | $256K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$129,679 | -$99,979 | -$45,479 | -$17,879 | -$8,079 | -$293 | +$12,272 | +$21,706 | +$2,313 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -51.1% | -39.4% | -17.9% | -7.0% | -3.2% | -0.1% | +4.8% | +8.6% | +0.9% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $218K | $215K | $212K | $230K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $329K | $366K | $403K | $285K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$218K to $329K
43.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$230K to $285K
21.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona City · 85123 · (Tract 21.4) | $252K | $275K | +9.1% | |
| Apache Junction (Tract 000315) | $278K | $310K | +11.5% | |
| Apache Junction (Tract 000313) | $279K | $305K | +9.2% | |
| Casa Grande (Tract 001405) | $277K | $295K | +6.6% | |
| Casa Grande (Tract 001307) | $253K | $268K | +5.9% | |
| Arizona City | $256K | $271K | +5.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona City · 85123 · (Tract 21.4) | $252K | $275K | +9.1% | |
| North Pinal | $600K | $697K | +16.2% | |
| Maricopa (Tract 001714) | $362K | $420K | +16.0% | |
| Maricopa (Tract 001716) | $389K | $447K | +14.9% | |
| San Tan Valley | $458K | $525K | +14.7% | |
| Florence | $169K | $194K | +14.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona City · 85123 · (Tract 21.4) | $252K | $275K | $191K | |
| North Pinal (Tract 000317) | $84K | $88K | $68K | |
| Eloy (Tract 001900) | $150K | $161K | $65K | |
| Eloy (Tract 002004) | $140K | $154K | $63K | |
| North Pinal (Tract 002300) | $134K | $150K | $62K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Pinal, AZ · ZIP 85123 · Census Tract 04021002104 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$254K
Downside (P10)
$212K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$275K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$403K
+59% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +59%. The model forecasts this with 62% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $124K | $154K | $208K | $236K | $246K | $254K | $253K | $266K | $275K | $256K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$129,679 | -$99,979 | -$45,479 | -$17,879 | -$8,079 | -$293 | +$12,272 | +$21,706 | +$2,313 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -51.1% | -39.4% | -17.9% | -7.0% | -3.2% | -0.1% | +4.8% | +8.6% | +0.9% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $218K | $215K | $212K | $230K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $329K | $366K | $403K | $285K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$218K to $329K
43.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$230K to $285K
21.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona City · 85123 · (Tract 21.4) | $252K | $275K | +9.1% | |
| Apache Junction (Tract 000315) | $278K | $310K | +11.5% | |
| Apache Junction (Tract 000313) | $279K | $305K | +9.2% | |
| Casa Grande (Tract 001405) | $277K | $295K | +6.6% | |
| Casa Grande (Tract 001307) | $253K | $268K | +5.9% | |
| Arizona City | $256K | $271K | +5.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona City · 85123 · (Tract 21.4) | $252K | $275K | +9.1% | |
| North Pinal | $600K | $697K | +16.2% | |
| Maricopa (Tract 001714) | $362K | $420K | +16.0% | |
| Maricopa (Tract 001716) | $389K | $447K | +14.9% | |
| San Tan Valley | $458K | $525K | +14.7% | |
| Florence | $169K | $194K | +14.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona City · 85123 · (Tract 21.4) | $252K | $275K | $191K | |
| North Pinal (Tract 000317) | $84K | $88K | $68K | |
| Eloy (Tract 001900) | $150K | $161K | $65K | |
| Eloy (Tract 002004) | $140K | $154K | $63K | |
| North Pinal (Tract 002300) | $134K | $150K | $62K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
