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Clay, AR · ZIP 72454 · Census Tract 05021950600 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$118K
Downside (P10)
$98K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$118K
-0% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$169K
+42% by 2030
Base case: -0% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +42%. The model forecasts this with 67% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $70K | $75K | $82K | $85K | $88K | $94K | $85K | $113K | $117K | $121K | $118K | $119K | $121K | $118K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$48,407 | -$43,807 | -$36,607 | -$33,507 | -$30,607 | -$24,407 | -$33,007 | -$5,707 | -$1,307 | +$2,493 | +$683 | +$2,779 | -$384 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -40.9% | -37.0% | -30.9% | -28.3% | -25.8% | -20.6% | -27.9% | -4.8% | -1.1% | +2.1% | +0.6% | +2.3% | -0.3% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $102K | $103K | $98K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $146K | $152K | $169K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$102K to $146K
37.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$98K to $169K
60.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North St. Francis | $122K | $118K | -3.3% | |
| Clay | $119K | $170K | +42.5% | |
| West Oak Bluff area | $95K | $105K | +10.0% | |
| Bennett-Lemmons area | $96K | $104K | +7.9% | |
| Gleghorn-South Kilgore area (Tract 950300) | $101K | $108K | +6.6% | |
| Gleghorn-South Kilgore area (Tract 950400) | $91K | $96K | +4.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North St. Francis | $122K | $118K | -3.3% | |
| Clay (Tract 000300) | $82K | $123K | +50.3% | |
| Clay (Tract 001000) | $54K | $79K | +46.1% | |
| Clay (Tract 000201) | $119K | $170K | +42.5% | |
| West Oak Bluff area | $95K | $105K | +10.0% | |
| Bennett-Lemmons area | $96K | $104K | +7.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North St. Francis | $122K | $118K | $71K | |
| Gleghorn-South Kilgore area (Tract 950400) | $91K | $96K | $65K | |
| Bennett-Lemmons area | $96K | $104K | $58K | |
| Gleghorn-South Kilgore area (Tract 950300) | $101K | $108K | $56K | |
| West Oak Bluff area | $95K | $105K | $51K | |
| South St. Francis area | $59K | $61K | $25K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Clay, AR · ZIP 72454 · Census Tract 05021950600 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$118K
Downside (P10)
$98K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$118K
-0% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$169K
+42% by 2030
Base case: -0% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +42%. The model forecasts this with 67% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $70K | $75K | $82K | $85K | $88K | $94K | $85K | $113K | $117K | $121K | $118K | $119K | $121K | $118K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$48,407 | -$43,807 | -$36,607 | -$33,507 | -$30,607 | -$24,407 | -$33,007 | -$5,707 | -$1,307 | +$2,493 | +$683 | +$2,779 | -$384 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -40.9% | -37.0% | -30.9% | -28.3% | -25.8% | -20.6% | -27.9% | -4.8% | -1.1% | +2.1% | +0.6% | +2.3% | -0.3% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $102K | $103K | $98K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $146K | $152K | $169K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$102K to $146K
37.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$98K to $169K
60.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North St. Francis | $122K | $118K | -3.3% | |
| Clay | $119K | $170K | +42.5% | |
| West Oak Bluff area | $95K | $105K | +10.0% | |
| Bennett-Lemmons area | $96K | $104K | +7.9% | |
| Gleghorn-South Kilgore area (Tract 950300) | $101K | $108K | +6.6% | |
| Gleghorn-South Kilgore area (Tract 950400) | $91K | $96K | +4.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North St. Francis | $122K | $118K | -3.3% | |
| Clay (Tract 000300) | $82K | $123K | +50.3% | |
| Clay (Tract 001000) | $54K | $79K | +46.1% | |
| Clay (Tract 000201) | $119K | $170K | +42.5% | |
| West Oak Bluff area | $95K | $105K | +10.0% | |
| Bennett-Lemmons area | $96K | $104K | +7.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North St. Francis | $122K | $118K | $71K | |
| Gleghorn-South Kilgore area (Tract 950400) | $91K | $96K | $65K | |
| Bennett-Lemmons area | $96K | $104K | $58K | |
| Gleghorn-South Kilgore area (Tract 950300) | $101K | $108K | $56K | |
| West Oak Bluff area | $95K | $105K | $51K | |
| South St. Francis area | $59K | $61K | $25K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
