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Clay, AR · ZIP 72461 · Census Tract 05021950200 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$98K
Downside (P10)
$85K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$104K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$143K
+46% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +46%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $71K | $75K | $75K | $72K | $75K | $84K | $78K | $87K | $103K | $95K | $98K | $97K | $102K | $104K | $99K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$26,853 | -$22,953 | -$23,453 | -$25,653 | -$23,253 | -$14,353 | -$20,453 | -$10,653 | +$5,447 | -$2,953 | -$690 | +$3,616 | +$5,607 | +$589 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -27.4% | -23.4% | -23.9% | -26.2% | -23.7% | -14.7% | -20.9% | -10.9% | +5.6% | -3.0% | -0.7% | +3.7% | +5.7% | +0.6% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $87K | $85K | $85K | $86K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $127K | $145K | $143K | $114K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$87K to $127K
40.7% of median
Long-horizon band
$86K to $114K
27.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bennett-Lemmons area | $96K | $104K | +7.9% | |
| Clay (Tract 000300) | $82K | $123K | +50.3% | |
| Clay (Tract 000201) | $119K | $170K | +42.5% | |
| West Oak Bluff area | $95K | $105K | +10.0% | |
| Gleghorn-South Kilgore area (Tract 950300) | $101K | $108K | +6.6% | |
| Gleghorn-South Kilgore area (Tract 950400) | $91K | $96K | +4.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bennett-Lemmons area | $96K | $104K | +7.9% | |
| Clay (Tract 000300) | $82K | $123K | +50.3% | |
| Clay (Tract 001000) | $54K | $79K | +46.1% | |
| Clay (Tract 000201) | $119K | $170K | +42.5% | |
| West Oak Bluff area | $95K | $105K | +10.0% | |
| Gleghorn-South Kilgore area | $101K | $108K | +6.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bennett-Lemmons area | $96K | $104K | $58K | |
| North St. Francis | $122K | $118K | $71K | |
| Gleghorn-South Kilgore area (Tract 950400) | $91K | $96K | $65K | |
| Gleghorn-South Kilgore area (Tract 950300) | $101K | $108K | $56K | |
| West Oak Bluff area | $95K | $105K | $51K | |
| South St. Francis area | $59K | $61K | $25K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Clay, AR · ZIP 72461 · Census Tract 05021950200 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$98K
Downside (P10)
$85K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$104K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$143K
+46% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +46%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $71K | $75K | $75K | $72K | $75K | $84K | $78K | $87K | $103K | $95K | $98K | $97K | $102K | $104K | $99K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$26,853 | -$22,953 | -$23,453 | -$25,653 | -$23,253 | -$14,353 | -$20,453 | -$10,653 | +$5,447 | -$2,953 | -$690 | +$3,616 | +$5,607 | +$589 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -27.4% | -23.4% | -23.9% | -26.2% | -23.7% | -14.7% | -20.9% | -10.9% | +5.6% | -3.0% | -0.7% | +3.7% | +5.7% | +0.6% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $87K | $85K | $85K | $86K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $127K | $145K | $143K | $114K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$87K to $127K
40.7% of median
Long-horizon band
$86K to $114K
27.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bennett-Lemmons area | $96K | $104K | +7.9% | |
| Clay (Tract 000300) | $82K | $123K | +50.3% | |
| Clay (Tract 000201) | $119K | $170K | +42.5% | |
| West Oak Bluff area | $95K | $105K | +10.0% | |
| Gleghorn-South Kilgore area (Tract 950300) | $101K | $108K | +6.6% | |
| Gleghorn-South Kilgore area (Tract 950400) | $91K | $96K | +4.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bennett-Lemmons area | $96K | $104K | +7.9% | |
| Clay (Tract 000300) | $82K | $123K | +50.3% | |
| Clay (Tract 001000) | $54K | $79K | +46.1% | |
| Clay (Tract 000201) | $119K | $170K | +42.5% | |
| West Oak Bluff area | $95K | $105K | +10.0% | |
| Gleghorn-South Kilgore area | $101K | $108K | +6.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bennett-Lemmons area | $96K | $104K | $58K | |
| North St. Francis | $122K | $118K | $71K | |
| Gleghorn-South Kilgore area (Tract 950400) | $91K | $96K | $65K | |
| Gleghorn-South Kilgore area (Tract 950300) | $101K | $108K | $56K | |
| West Oak Bluff area | $95K | $105K | $51K | |
| South St. Francis area | $59K | $61K | $25K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
