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Clay, AR · Census Tract 05021001000 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$54K
Downside (P10)
$45K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$80K
+48% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$144K
+165% by 2030
Base case: +48% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +165%. The model forecasts this with 32% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $54K | $67K | $75K | $79K | $80K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$12,686 | +$21,106 | +$24,990 | +$26,069 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +23.4% | +38.9% | +46.1% | +48.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $54K | $51K | $46K | $45K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $89K | $114K | $124K | $144K |
The upside and downside bands are unusually far apart. Treat the median path as one plausible case rather than a tight estimate.
Near-term band
$54K to $89K
52.5% of median
Long-horizon band
$45K to $144K
123.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001000 | $54K | $80K | +48.1% | |
| Clay | $82K | $129K | +57.8% | |
| West Oak Bluff area | $97K | $105K | +7.5% | |
| South St. Francis area | $60K | $61K | +2.1% | |
| Bennett-Lemmons area | $98K | $99K | +0.6% | |
| Gleghorn-South Kilgore area | $95K | $95K | +0.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001000 | $54K | $80K | +48.1% | |
| Clay (Tract 000300) | $82K | $129K | +57.8% | |
| Clay (Tract 000201) | $119K | $178K | +49.7% | |
| West Oak Bluff area | $97K | $105K | +7.5% | |
| Gleghorn-South Kilgore area | $103K | $108K | +5.2% | |
| South St. Francis area | $60K | $61K | +2.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001000 | $54K | $80K | $99K | |
| Gleghorn-South Kilgore area (Tract 950300) | $103K | $108K | $56K | |
| West Oak Bluff area | $97K | $105K | $51K | |
| Bennett-Lemmons area | $98K | $99K | $27K | |
| South St. Francis area | $60K | $61K | $25K | |
| Gleghorn-South Kilgore area (Tract 950400) | $95K | $95K | $24K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Clay, AR · Census Tract 05021001000 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$54K
Downside (P10)
$45K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$80K
+48% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$144K
+165% by 2030
Base case: +48% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +165%. The model forecasts this with 32% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $54K | $67K | $75K | $79K | $80K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$12,686 | +$21,106 | +$24,990 | +$26,069 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +23.4% | +38.9% | +46.1% | +48.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $54K | $51K | $46K | $45K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $89K | $114K | $124K | $144K |
The upside and downside bands are unusually far apart. Treat the median path as one plausible case rather than a tight estimate.
Near-term band
$54K to $89K
52.5% of median
Long-horizon band
$45K to $144K
123.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001000 | $54K | $80K | +48.1% | |
| Clay | $82K | $129K | +57.8% | |
| West Oak Bluff area | $97K | $105K | +7.5% | |
| South St. Francis area | $60K | $61K | +2.1% | |
| Bennett-Lemmons area | $98K | $99K | +0.6% | |
| Gleghorn-South Kilgore area | $95K | $95K | +0.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001000 | $54K | $80K | +48.1% | |
| Clay (Tract 000300) | $82K | $129K | +57.8% | |
| Clay (Tract 000201) | $119K | $178K | +49.7% | |
| West Oak Bluff area | $97K | $105K | +7.5% | |
| Gleghorn-South Kilgore area | $103K | $108K | +5.2% | |
| South St. Francis area | $60K | $61K | +2.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001000 | $54K | $80K | $99K | |
| Gleghorn-South Kilgore area (Tract 950300) | $103K | $108K | $56K | |
| West Oak Bluff area | $97K | $105K | $51K | |
| Bennett-Lemmons area | $98K | $99K | $27K | |
| South St. Francis area | $60K | $61K | $25K | |
| Gleghorn-South Kilgore area (Tract 950400) | $95K | $95K | $24K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
