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Thurston, WA · ZIP 98501 · Census Tract 53067010400 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$594K
Downside (P10)
$528K
-11% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$655K
+10% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$828K
+39% by 2030
Base case: +10% by 2030, with a forecast range from -11% to +39%. The model forecasts this with 75% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $262K | $267K | $274K | $285K | $309K | $332K | $389K | $485K | $533K | $586K | $594K | $614K | $646K | $655K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$331,604 | -$326,804 | -$319,904 | -$308,404 | -$284,504 | -$262,304 | -$204,504 | -$108,804 | -$60,404 | -$8,104 | +$20,142 | +$52,325 | +$61,542 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -55.8% | -55.0% | -53.9% | -51.9% | -47.9% | -44.2% | -34.4% | -18.3% | -10.2% | -1.4% | +3.4% | +8.8% | +10.4% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $523K | $529K | $528K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $701K | $744K | $828K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$523K to $701K
29.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$528K to $828K
45.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympia | $596K | $655K | +10.0% | |
| Thurston South (Tract 012532) | $579K | $663K | +14.5% | |
| Thurston South (Tract 012610) | $592K | $659K | +11.3% | |
| Olympia (Tract 011721) | $596K | $647K | +8.5% | |
| Olympia (Tract 012226) | $592K | $608K | +2.7% | |
| Olympia West | $582K | $588K | +0.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympia | $596K | $655K | +10.0% | |
| Olympia (Tract 012211) | $700K | $827K | +18.2% | |
| Thurston South (Tract 012620) | $388K | $454K | +17.0% | |
| Olympia East | $455K | $532K | +17.0% | |
| Thurston South (Tract 012532) | $579K | $663K | +14.5% | |
| Olympia (Tract 011722) | $557K | $636K | +14.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympia | $596K | $655K | $300K | |
| Olympia (Tract 010520) | $448K | $501K | $205K | |
| Olympia (Tract 011200) | $343K | $371K | $197K | |
| Thurston South | $424K | $443K | $194K | |
| Olympia (Tract 011300) | $315K | $345K | $165K | |
| Olympia (Tract 010510) | $94K | $101K | $75K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Thurston, WA · ZIP 98501 · Census Tract 53067010400 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$594K
Downside (P10)
$528K
-11% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$655K
+10% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$828K
+39% by 2030
Base case: +10% by 2030, with a forecast range from -11% to +39%. The model forecasts this with 75% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $262K | $267K | $274K | $285K | $309K | $332K | $389K | $485K | $533K | $586K | $594K | $614K | $646K | $655K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$331,604 | -$326,804 | -$319,904 | -$308,404 | -$284,504 | -$262,304 | -$204,504 | -$108,804 | -$60,404 | -$8,104 | +$20,142 | +$52,325 | +$61,542 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -55.8% | -55.0% | -53.9% | -51.9% | -47.9% | -44.2% | -34.4% | -18.3% | -10.2% | -1.4% | +3.4% | +8.8% | +10.4% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $523K | $529K | $528K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $701K | $744K | $828K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$523K to $701K
29.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$528K to $828K
45.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympia | $596K | $655K | +10.0% | |
| Thurston South (Tract 012532) | $579K | $663K | +14.5% | |
| Thurston South (Tract 012610) | $592K | $659K | +11.3% | |
| Olympia (Tract 011721) | $596K | $647K | +8.5% | |
| Olympia (Tract 012226) | $592K | $608K | +2.7% | |
| Olympia West | $582K | $588K | +0.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympia | $596K | $655K | +10.0% | |
| Olympia (Tract 012211) | $700K | $827K | +18.2% | |
| Thurston South (Tract 012620) | $388K | $454K | +17.0% | |
| Olympia East | $455K | $532K | +17.0% | |
| Thurston South (Tract 012532) | $579K | $663K | +14.5% | |
| Olympia (Tract 011722) | $557K | $636K | +14.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympia | $596K | $655K | $300K | |
| Olympia (Tract 010520) | $448K | $501K | $205K | |
| Olympia (Tract 011200) | $343K | $371K | $197K | |
| Thurston South | $424K | $443K | $194K | |
| Olympia (Tract 011300) | $315K | $345K | $165K | |
| Olympia (Tract 010510) | $94K | $101K | $75K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
