Island, WA · ZIP 98277 · Census Tract 53029970800 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$420K
Downside (P10)
$329K
-21% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$442K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$622K
+48% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -21% to +48%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar Island markets.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $215K | $218K | $209K | $223K | $252K | $260K | $285K | $343K | $364K | $404K | $420K | $427K | $435K | $442K |
| YoY Change | +1.4% | -3.8% | +6.7% | +12.8% | +3.4% | +9.5% | +20.2% | +6.3% | +10.8% | +3.9% | +1.8% | +1.7% | +1.6% | |
| Downside (P10) | $350K | $344K | $329K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $545K | $605K | $622K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The range stays consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$350K to $545K
45.5% of median
5-Year Spread
$329K to $622K
66.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oak Harbor | $415K | $442K | +6.3% | |
| North Whidbey Island | $413K | $436K | +5.7% | |
| Oak Harbor | $436K | $460K | +5.6% | |
| North Whidbey Island | $441K | $520K | +18.0% | |
| Oak Harbor | $456K | $516K | +13.1% | |
| North Whidbey Island | $464K | $464K | -0.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oak Harbor | $415K | $442K | +6.3% | |
| North Whidbey Island | $441K | $520K | +18.0% | |
| Oak Harbor | $456K | $516K | +13.1% | |
| North Whidbey Island | $545K | $615K | +12.8% | |
| Central Whidbey Island | $650K | $714K | +9.9% | |
| Central Whidbey Island | $627K | $688K | +9.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oak Harbor | $415K | $442K | $293K | |
| Oak Harbor | $329K | $357K | $178K | |
| North Whidbey Island | $413K | $436K | $191K | |
| Camano | $543K | $550K | $219K | |
| North Whidbey Island | $520K | $516K | $261K | |
| Oak Harbor | $456K | $516K | $263K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.