What is the home price forecast for Parcel 51087200143 in Short Pump · Henrico · (Tract 2001.43)?

Homecastr forecasts median home values at $658,591 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 13.2%.

What is the home price forecast for Parcel 51087200143 in Short Pump · Henrico · (Tract 2001.43)?

Homecastr forecasts median home values at $658,591 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 13.2%.

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Parcel 51087200143 (Short Pump) Home Price Forecast | Homecastr

Parcel 51087200143, Short Pump · Henrico · (Tract 2001.43) Home Price Forecast

Henrico, VA · ZIP 23233 · Census Tract 51087200143 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026

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Current modeled value

$659K

Downside (P10)

$551K

-16% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$745K

+13% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$866K

+32% by 2030

Base case: +13% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +32%. The model forecasts this with 77% confidence.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2026	2027	2028	2029
Median Value	$474K	$469K	$570K	$615K	$628K	$659K	$687K	$697K	$745K
Growth $ vs 2026	-$184,591	-$189,791	-$88,491	-$43,491	-$30,591		+$28,313	+$37,949	+$86,750
Growth % vs 2026	-28.0%	-28.8%	-13.4%	-6.6%	-4.6%		+4.3%	+5.8%	+13.2%
Downside (P10)							$556K	$571K	$551K
Upside (P90)							$784K	$832K	$866K

Forecast Confidence

77%

Moderate Confidence

The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.

Near-term band

$556K to $784K

33.3% of median

Long-horizon band

$551K to $866K

42.2% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: strong growth expected5yr expected: +13.2% · Spread: 42%

·The forecast implies steady near-term growth accelerating over the longer horizon.
·The base case is supported by strong local demand signals and a positive medium-term appreciation path.
·The narrow range suggests relatively high model confidence for this market.

Location

Parcel 51087200143, Short Pump · Henrico · (Tract 2001.43) on map

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Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).