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Henrico, VA · ZIP 23233 · Census Tract 51087200143 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$659K
Downside (P10)
$551K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$745K
+13% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$866K
+32% by 2030
Base case: +13% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +32%. The model forecasts this with 77% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $474K | $469K | $570K | $615K | $628K | $659K | $687K | $697K | $745K |
| YoY Change | -1.1% | +21.6% | +7.9% | +2.1% | +4.9% | +4.3% | +1.4% | +7.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $556K | $571K | $551K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $784K | $832K | $866K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$556K to $784K
33.3% of median
5-Year Spread
$551K to $866K
42.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Short Pump · Henrico · (Tract 2001.43) | $640K | $745K | +16.4% | |
| Short Pump (Tract 200140) | $636K | $717K | +12.7% | |
| Tuckahoe (Tract 200134) | $648K | $700K | +8.1% | |
| Short Pump (Tract 200149) | $627K | $656K | +4.6% | |
| Tuckahoe (Tract 200202) | $638K | $659K | +3.4% | |
| Wyndham | $625K | $642K | +2.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Short Pump · Henrico · (Tract 2001.43) | $640K | $745K | +16.4% | |
| East Highland Park | $213K | $256K | +20.5% | |
| Dumbarton | $264K | $310K | +17.3% | |
| Three Chopt area | $395K | $459K | +16.3% | |
| Short Pump | $522K | $605K | +15.8% | |
| Brookland | $313K | $360K | +15.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Short Pump · Henrico · (Tract 2001.43) | $640K | $745K | $315K | |
| East Highland Park (Tract 201003) | $213K | $256K | $115K | |
| Fairfield (Tract 200806) | $218K | $234K | $113K | |
| East Highland Park (Tract 201002) | $217K | $232K | $104K | |
| Fairfield (Tract 200805) | $194K | $215K | $100K | |
| Highland Springs | $211K | $219K | $98K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.