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Frederick, VA · ZIP 22602 · Census Tract 51069050805 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$524K
Downside (P10)
$404K
-23% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$543K
+3% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$851K
+62% by 2030
Base case: +3% by 2030, with a forecast range from -23% to +62%. The model forecasts this with 55% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $350K | $365K | $426K | $462K | $493K | $524K | $529K | $535K | $543K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$174,590 | -$159,790 | -$98,090 | -$62,490 | -$31,390 | +$5,173 | +$10,684 | +$18,219 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -33.3% | -30.5% | -18.7% | -11.9% | -6.0% | +1.0% | +2.0% | +3.5% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $430K | $426K | $404K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $664K | $733K | $851K |
The predictive band is wider than average, so point estimates should be read with caution. Short-term confidence is usable, but the farther-out range broadens significantly.
Near-term band
$430K to $664K
44.3% of median
Long-horizon band
$404K to $851K
82.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawnee | $508K | $543K | +6.8% | |
| Red Bud area | $467K | $543K | +16.5% | |
| Shawnee (Tract 050806) | $441K | $490K | +11.0% | |
| Opequon | $460K | $509K | +10.7% | |
| Shawnee (Tract 050900) | $463K | $503K | +8.6% | |
| Stonewall area | $501K | $540K | +7.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawnee | $508K | $543K | +6.8% | |
| Red Bud area | $467K | $543K | +16.5% | |
| Red Bud | $281K | $323K | +15.1% | |
| Back Creek | $410K | $460K | +12.4% | |
| Stonewall | $420K | $471K | +12.2% | |
| Shawnee | $346K | $387K | +11.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawnee | $508K | $543K | $446K | |
| Back Creek area | $375K | $395K | $205K | |
| Red Bud | $390K | $416K | $190K | |
| Opequon | $364K | $398K | $188K | |
| Gainesboro | $384K | $404K | $171K | |
| Stonewall | $216K | $229K | $124K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Frederick, VA · ZIP 22602 · Census Tract 51069050805 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$524K
Downside (P10)
$404K
-23% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$543K
+3% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$851K
+62% by 2030
Base case: +3% by 2030, with a forecast range from -23% to +62%. The model forecasts this with 55% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $350K | $365K | $426K | $462K | $493K | $524K | $529K | $535K | $543K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$174,590 | -$159,790 | -$98,090 | -$62,490 | -$31,390 | +$5,173 | +$10,684 | +$18,219 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -33.3% | -30.5% | -18.7% | -11.9% | -6.0% | +1.0% | +2.0% | +3.5% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $430K | $426K | $404K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $664K | $733K | $851K |
The predictive band is wider than average, so point estimates should be read with caution. Short-term confidence is usable, but the farther-out range broadens significantly.
Near-term band
$430K to $664K
44.3% of median
Long-horizon band
$404K to $851K
82.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawnee | $508K | $543K | +6.8% | |
| Red Bud area | $467K | $543K | +16.5% | |
| Shawnee (Tract 050806) | $441K | $490K | +11.0% | |
| Opequon | $460K | $509K | +10.7% | |
| Shawnee (Tract 050900) | $463K | $503K | +8.6% | |
| Stonewall area | $501K | $540K | +7.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawnee | $508K | $543K | +6.8% | |
| Red Bud area | $467K | $543K | +16.5% | |
| Red Bud | $281K | $323K | +15.1% | |
| Back Creek | $410K | $460K | +12.4% | |
| Stonewall | $420K | $471K | +12.2% | |
| Shawnee | $346K | $387K | +11.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawnee | $508K | $543K | $446K | |
| Back Creek area | $375K | $395K | $205K | |
| Red Bud | $390K | $416K | $190K | |
| Opequon | $364K | $398K | $188K | |
| Gainesboro | $384K | $404K | $171K | |
| Stonewall | $216K | $229K | $124K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
