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Frederick, VA · ZIP 22602 · Census Tract 51069051002 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$283K
Downside (P10)
$258K
-9% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$323K
+14% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$481K
+70% by 2030
Base case: +14% by 2030, with a forecast range from -9% to +70%. The model forecasts this with 62% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $216K | $227K | $257K | $270K | $280K | $283K | $300K | $316K | $323K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$67,416 | -$55,916 | -$26,116 | -$12,916 | -$3,116 | +$16,639 | +$33,357 | +$40,159 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -23.8% | -19.8% | -9.2% | -4.6% | -1.1% | +5.9% | +11.8% | +14.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $254K | $255K | $258K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $367K | $437K | $481K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$254K to $367K
37.7% of median
Long-horizon band
$258K to $481K
69.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Bud | $281K | $323K | +15.1% | |
| Shawnee | $346K | $387K | +11.6% | |
| Opequon | $364K | $398K | +9.3% | |
| Back Creek area | $352K | $374K | +6.4% | |
| Stonewall | $216K | $229K | +6.0% | |
| Back Creek | $284K | $298K | +4.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Bud | $281K | $323K | +15.1% | |
| Red Bud area | $467K | $543K | +16.5% | |
| Back Creek | $410K | $460K | +12.4% | |
| Stonewall | $420K | $471K | +12.2% | |
| Shawnee (Tract 050807) | $346K | $387K | +11.6% | |
| Shawnee (Tract 050806) | $441K | $490K | +11.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Bud | $281K | $323K | $223K | |
| Back Creek area | $375K | $395K | $205K | |
| Red Bud | $390K | $416K | $190K | |
| Opequon | $364K | $398K | $188K | |
| Gainesboro | $384K | $404K | $171K | |
| Stonewall | $216K | $229K | $124K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Frederick, VA · ZIP 22602 · Census Tract 51069051002 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$283K
Downside (P10)
$258K
-9% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$323K
+14% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$481K
+70% by 2030
Base case: +14% by 2030, with a forecast range from -9% to +70%. The model forecasts this with 62% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $216K | $227K | $257K | $270K | $280K | $283K | $300K | $316K | $323K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$67,416 | -$55,916 | -$26,116 | -$12,916 | -$3,116 | +$16,639 | +$33,357 | +$40,159 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -23.8% | -19.8% | -9.2% | -4.6% | -1.1% | +5.9% | +11.8% | +14.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $254K | $255K | $258K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $367K | $437K | $481K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$254K to $367K
37.7% of median
Long-horizon band
$258K to $481K
69.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Bud | $281K | $323K | +15.1% | |
| Shawnee | $346K | $387K | +11.6% | |
| Opequon | $364K | $398K | +9.3% | |
| Back Creek area | $352K | $374K | +6.4% | |
| Stonewall | $216K | $229K | +6.0% | |
| Back Creek | $284K | $298K | +4.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Bud | $281K | $323K | +15.1% | |
| Red Bud area | $467K | $543K | +16.5% | |
| Back Creek | $410K | $460K | +12.4% | |
| Stonewall | $420K | $471K | +12.2% | |
| Shawnee (Tract 050807) | $346K | $387K | +11.6% | |
| Shawnee (Tract 050806) | $441K | $490K | +11.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Bud | $281K | $323K | $223K | |
| Back Creek area | $375K | $395K | $205K | |
| Red Bud | $390K | $416K | $190K | |
| Opequon | $364K | $398K | $188K | |
| Gainesboro | $384K | $404K | $171K | |
| Stonewall | $216K | $229K | $124K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
