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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Frederick, VA · ZIP 22602 · Census Tract 51069051001 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$446K
Downside (P10)
$373K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$469K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$693K
+55% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +55%. The model forecasts this with 63% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $332K | $381K | $420K | $425K | $430K | $446K | $456K | $473K | $469K |
| YoY Change | +14.9% | +10.2% | +1.2% | +1.2% | +3.6% | +2.3% | +3.8% | -0.8% | |
| Downside (P10) | $378K | $373K | $373K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $520K | $585K | $693K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$378K to $520K
31.3% of median
5-Year Spread
$373K to $693K
68.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawnee area | $434K | $469K | +8.0% | |
| Red Bud area | $467K | $543K | +16.5% | |
| Stonewall | $420K | $471K | +12.2% | |
| Shawnee (Tract 050806) | $441K | $490K | +11.0% | |
| Opequon | $460K | $509K | +10.7% | |
| Shawnee (Tract 050900) | $463K | $503K | +8.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawnee area | $434K | $469K | +8.0% | |
| Red Bud area | $467K | $543K | +16.5% | |
| Red Bud | $281K | $323K | +15.1% | |
| Back Creek | $410K | $460K | +12.4% | |
| Stonewall | $420K | $471K | +12.2% | |
| Shawnee | $346K | $387K | +11.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawnee area | $434K | $469K | $320K | |
| Back Creek area | $375K | $395K | $205K | |
| Red Bud | $390K | $416K | $190K | |
| Opequon | $364K | $398K | $188K | |
| Gainesboro | $384K | $404K | $171K | |
| Stonewall | $216K | $229K | $124K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.