Fairfax, VA · ZIP 20151 · Census Tract 51059491602 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$627K
Downside (P10)
$521K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$665K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$883K
+41% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +41%. Uncertainty is narrow relative to similar Fairfax markets.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $374K | $398K | $418K | $434K | $468K | $470K | $500K | $590K | $619K | $615K | $627K | $637K | $662K | $665K | $642K |
| YoY Change | +6.3% | +5.2% | +3.7% | +7.9% | +0.3% | +6.3% | +18.2% | +4.9% | -0.6% | +2.0% | +1.6% | +3.9% | +0.4% | -3.5% | |
| Downside (P10) | $529K | $530K | $521K | $573K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $778K | $850K | $883K | $730K |
The forecast range is narrow for this market. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight and remain tight through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$529K to $778K
39.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$573K to $730K
24.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chantilly · 20151 · (Tract 4916.2) | $620K | $665K | +7.3% | |
| Woodlawn | $354K | $434K | +22.6% | |
| Belle Haven | $899K | $1.10M | +22.4% | |
| Franconia | $462K | $565K | +22.3% | |
| Centreville | $603K | $727K | +20.5% | |
| Fair Oaks | $651K | $782K | +20.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chantilly · 20151 · (Tract 4916.2) | $620K | $665K | $361K | |
| Seven Corners | $241K | $260K | $167K | |
| Woodlawn | $293K | $336K | $170K | |
| Mason | $298K | $337K | $188K | |
| Bailey's Crossroads | $341K | $367K | $193K | |
| Centreville | $344K | $393K | $200K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.