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Fairfax, VA · ZIP 22079 · Census Tract 51059422101 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$634K
Downside (P10)
$540K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$701K
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$931K
+47% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +47%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $397K | $402K | $395K | $470K | $514K | $502K | $515K | $559K | $595K | $615K | $634K | $660K | $677K | $701K | $634K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$236,856 | -$232,056 | -$238,956 | -$164,256 | -$119,956 | -$131,456 | -$119,056 | -$75,056 | -$39,156 | -$19,156 | +$25,961 | +$42,746 | +$66,893 | +$632 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -37.4% | -36.6% | -37.7% | -25.9% | -18.9% | -20.7% | -18.8% | -11.8% | -6.2% | -3.0% | +4.1% | +6.7% | +10.6% | +0.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $562K | $558K | $540K | $560K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $752K | $795K | $931K | $727K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$562K to $752K
28.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$560K to $727K
26.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorton | $625K | $701K | +12.1% | |
| Annandale | $644K | $729K | +13.2% | |
| Oakton | $629K | $707K | +12.4% | |
| Merrifield | $646K | $699K | +8.1% | |
| Lee | $620K | $646K | +4.2% | |
| West Springfield | $636K | $638K | +0.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorton | $625K | $701K | +12.1% | |
| Woodlawn | $354K | $434K | +22.6% | |
| Belle Haven | $899K | $1.10M | +22.4% | |
| Franconia | $462K | $565K | +22.3% | |
| Mason | $885K | $1.06M | +19.8% | |
| George Mason | $691K | $821K | +18.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorton | $625K | $701K | $392K | |
| West Springfield | $379K | $407K | $201K | |
| Bailey's Crossroads | $341K | $367K | $193K | |
| Mason | $298K | $337K | $188K | |
| Woodlawn | $293K | $336K | $170K | |
| Seven Corners | $241K | $260K | $167K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Fairfax, VA · ZIP 22079 · Census Tract 51059422101 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$634K
Downside (P10)
$540K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$701K
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$931K
+47% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +47%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $397K | $402K | $395K | $470K | $514K | $502K | $515K | $559K | $595K | $615K | $634K | $660K | $677K | $701K | $634K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$236,856 | -$232,056 | -$238,956 | -$164,256 | -$119,956 | -$131,456 | -$119,056 | -$75,056 | -$39,156 | -$19,156 | +$25,961 | +$42,746 | +$66,893 | +$632 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -37.4% | -36.6% | -37.7% | -25.9% | -18.9% | -20.7% | -18.8% | -11.8% | -6.2% | -3.0% | +4.1% | +6.7% | +10.6% | +0.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $562K | $558K | $540K | $560K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $752K | $795K | $931K | $727K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$562K to $752K
28.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$560K to $727K
26.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorton | $625K | $701K | +12.1% | |
| Annandale | $644K | $729K | +13.2% | |
| Oakton | $629K | $707K | +12.4% | |
| Merrifield | $646K | $699K | +8.1% | |
| Lee | $620K | $646K | +4.2% | |
| West Springfield | $636K | $638K | +0.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorton | $625K | $701K | +12.1% | |
| Woodlawn | $354K | $434K | +22.6% | |
| Belle Haven | $899K | $1.10M | +22.4% | |
| Franconia | $462K | $565K | +22.3% | |
| Mason | $885K | $1.06M | +19.8% | |
| George Mason | $691K | $821K | +18.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorton | $625K | $701K | $392K | |
| West Springfield | $379K | $407K | $201K | |
| Bailey's Crossroads | $341K | $367K | $193K | |
| Mason | $298K | $337K | $188K | |
| Woodlawn | $293K | $336K | $170K | |
| Seven Corners | $241K | $260K | $167K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
