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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Charlottesville, VA · Census Tract 51540880001 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$1.10M
Downside (P10)
$422K
-62% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$811K
-26% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.54M
+40% by 2030
Base case: -26% by 2030, with a forecast range from -62% to +40%. The model forecasts this with 24% confidence.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.1M | $1.1M | $936K | $825K | $811K |
| YoY Change | -2.3% | -13.0% | -11.9% | -1.6% | |
| Downside (P10) | $601K | $461K | $421K | $422K | |
| Upside (P90) | $1.6M | $1.5M | $1.4M | $1.5M |
The spread between upside and downside scenarios is unusually large — treat any single-point estimate with high caution. This reflects sparse local data or extreme historical volatility.
1-Year Spread
$601K to $1.57M
90.5% of median
5-Year Spread
$422K to $1.54M
137.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 880001 | $1.10M | $811K | -26.3% | |
| Charlottesville (Tract 720006) | $1.03M | $930K | -9.3% | |
| Charlottesville (Tract 760008) | $1.10M | $948K | -13.5% | |
| Charlottesville (Tract 520002) | $1.17M | $996K | -15.2% | |
| Charlottesville (Tract 320008) | $1.18M | $988K | -16.5% | |
| Charlottesville (Tract 360000) | $1.21M | $1.01M | -16.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 880001 | $1.10M | $811K | -26.3% | |
| Charlottesville (Tract 720006) | $1.03M | $930K | -9.3% | |
| Charlottesville (Tract 760008) | $1.10M | $948K | -13.5% | |
| Charlottesville (Tract 520002) | $1.17M | $996K | -15.2% | |
| Charlottesville (Tract 320008) | $1.18M | $988K | -16.5% | |
| Charlottesville (Tract 360000) | $1.21M | $1.01M | -16.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 880001 | $1.10M | $811K | $1.11M | |
| Charlottesville (Tract 720006) | $1.03M | $930K | $1.17M | |
| Charlottesville (Tract 320008) | $1.18M | $988K | $1.15M |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources