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Charlottesville, VA · Census Tract 51540520002 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$1.17M
Downside (P10)
$439K
-63% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$996K
-15% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.73M
+48% by 2030
Base case: -15% by 2030, with a forecast range from -63% to +48%. The model forecasts this with 28% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.0M | $959K | $996K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$7,827 | -$160,381 | -$215,374 | -$178,743 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -0.7% | -13.7% | -18.3% | -15.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $746K | $565K | $435K | $439K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $1.6M | $1.6M | $1.6M | $1.7M |
The upside and downside bands are unusually far apart. Treat the median path as one plausible case rather than a tight estimate.
Near-term band
$746K to $1.6M
70.1% of median
Long-horizon band
$439K to $1.7M
130.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 520002 | $1.17M | $996K | -15.2% | |
| Charlottesville (Tract 720006) | $1.03M | $930K | -9.3% | |
| Charlottesville (Tract 760008) | $1.10M | $948K | -13.5% | |
| Charlottesville (Tract 320008) | $1.18M | $988K | -16.5% | |
| Charlottesville (Tract 360000) | $1.21M | $1.01M | -16.7% | |
| Charlottesville (Tract 880001) | $1.10M | $811K | -26.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 520002 | $1.17M | $996K | -15.2% | |
| Charlottesville (Tract 000401) | $393K | $448K | +13.8% | |
| Charlottesville (Tract 000402) | $449K | $508K | +13.1% | |
| Charlottesville (Tract 000202) | $389K | $434K | +11.3% | |
| Charlottesville (Tract 000700) | $874K | $959K | +9.7% | |
| Charlottesville (Tract 000800) | $609K | $668K | +9.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 520002 | $1.17M | $996K | $1.29M | |
| Charlottesville (Tract 000202) | $389K | $434K | $161K | |
| Charlottesville (Tract 000600) | $506K | $511K | $127K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Charlottesville, VA · Census Tract 51540520002 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$1.17M
Downside (P10)
$439K
-63% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$996K
-15% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.73M
+48% by 2030
Base case: -15% by 2030, with a forecast range from -63% to +48%. The model forecasts this with 28% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.0M | $959K | $996K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$7,827 | -$160,381 | -$215,374 | -$178,743 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -0.7% | -13.7% | -18.3% | -15.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $746K | $565K | $435K | $439K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $1.6M | $1.6M | $1.6M | $1.7M |
The upside and downside bands are unusually far apart. Treat the median path as one plausible case rather than a tight estimate.
Near-term band
$746K to $1.6M
70.1% of median
Long-horizon band
$439K to $1.7M
130.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 520002 | $1.17M | $996K | -15.2% | |
| Charlottesville (Tract 720006) | $1.03M | $930K | -9.3% | |
| Charlottesville (Tract 760008) | $1.10M | $948K | -13.5% | |
| Charlottesville (Tract 320008) | $1.18M | $988K | -16.5% | |
| Charlottesville (Tract 360000) | $1.21M | $1.01M | -16.7% | |
| Charlottesville (Tract 880001) | $1.10M | $811K | -26.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 520002 | $1.17M | $996K | -15.2% | |
| Charlottesville (Tract 000401) | $393K | $448K | +13.8% | |
| Charlottesville (Tract 000402) | $449K | $508K | +13.1% | |
| Charlottesville (Tract 000202) | $389K | $434K | +11.3% | |
| Charlottesville (Tract 000700) | $874K | $959K | +9.7% | |
| Charlottesville (Tract 000800) | $609K | $668K | +9.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 520002 | $1.17M | $996K | $1.29M | |
| Charlottesville (Tract 000202) | $389K | $434K | $161K | |
| Charlottesville (Tract 000600) | $506K | $511K | $127K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
