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Carroll, VA · ZIP 24333 · Census Tract 51035080601 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$130K
Downside (P10)
$107K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$138K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$176K
+36% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +36%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $107K | $89K | $84K | $89K | $89K | $99K | $109K | $122K | $124K | $127K | $130K | $130K | $133K | $138K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$22,521 | -$40,921 | -$45,221 | -$40,821 | -$40,321 | -$30,221 | -$20,821 | -$7,821 | -$5,921 | -$2,721 | +$441 | +$3,032 | +$8,228 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -17.4% | -31.6% | -34.9% | -31.5% | -31.1% | -23.3% | -16.1% | -6.0% | -4.6% | -2.1% | +0.3% | +2.3% | +6.4% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $111K | $112K | $107K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $146K | $164K | $176K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$111K to $146K
26.7% of median
Long-horizon band
$107K to $176K
50.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fancy Gap area | $128K | $138K | +7.7% | |
| Fancy Gap (Tract 080604) | $123K | $133K | +8.0% | |
| Sulphur Springs (Tract 080300) | $147K | $157K | +7.3% | |
| Piper Gap | $165K | $174K | +5.3% | |
| Sulphur Springs (Tract 080200) | $147K | $153K | +4.4% | |
| Fancy Gap (Tract 080603) | $136K | $140K | +2.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fancy Gap area | $128K | $138K | +7.7% | |
| Pine Creek | $173K | $208K | +20.0% | |
| Fancy Gap | $123K | $133K | +8.0% | |
| Sulphur Springs | $147K | $157K | +7.3% | |
| Laurel Fork | $192K | $206K | +7.0% | |
| Piper Gap | $165K | $174K | +5.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fancy Gap area | $128K | $138K | $69K | |
| Laurel Fork | $168K | $175K | $90K | |
| Sulphur Springs (Tract 080300) | $147K | $157K | $78K | |
| Sulphur Springs (Tract 080200) | $147K | $153K | $76K | |
| Fancy Gap (Tract 080604) | $123K | $133K | $64K | |
| Fancy Gap (Tract 080603) | $136K | $140K | $55K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Carroll, VA · ZIP 24333 · Census Tract 51035080601 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$130K
Downside (P10)
$107K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$138K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$176K
+36% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +36%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $107K | $89K | $84K | $89K | $89K | $99K | $109K | $122K | $124K | $127K | $130K | $130K | $133K | $138K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$22,521 | -$40,921 | -$45,221 | -$40,821 | -$40,321 | -$30,221 | -$20,821 | -$7,821 | -$5,921 | -$2,721 | +$441 | +$3,032 | +$8,228 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -17.4% | -31.6% | -34.9% | -31.5% | -31.1% | -23.3% | -16.1% | -6.0% | -4.6% | -2.1% | +0.3% | +2.3% | +6.4% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $111K | $112K | $107K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $146K | $164K | $176K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$111K to $146K
26.7% of median
Long-horizon band
$107K to $176K
50.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fancy Gap area | $128K | $138K | +7.7% | |
| Fancy Gap (Tract 080604) | $123K | $133K | +8.0% | |
| Sulphur Springs (Tract 080300) | $147K | $157K | +7.3% | |
| Piper Gap | $165K | $174K | +5.3% | |
| Sulphur Springs (Tract 080200) | $147K | $153K | +4.4% | |
| Fancy Gap (Tract 080603) | $136K | $140K | +2.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fancy Gap area | $128K | $138K | +7.7% | |
| Pine Creek | $173K | $208K | +20.0% | |
| Fancy Gap | $123K | $133K | +8.0% | |
| Sulphur Springs | $147K | $157K | +7.3% | |
| Laurel Fork | $192K | $206K | +7.0% | |
| Piper Gap | $165K | $174K | +5.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fancy Gap area | $128K | $138K | $69K | |
| Laurel Fork | $168K | $175K | $90K | |
| Sulphur Springs (Tract 080300) | $147K | $157K | $78K | |
| Sulphur Springs (Tract 080200) | $147K | $153K | $76K | |
| Fancy Gap (Tract 080604) | $123K | $133K | $64K | |
| Fancy Gap (Tract 080603) | $136K | $140K | $55K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
