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Carroll, VA · ZIP 24343 · Census Tract 51035080502 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$198K
Downside (P10)
$164K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$206K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$271K
+37% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +37%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $148K | $128K | $156K | $162K | $193K | $198K | $202K | $206K | $206K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$50,309 | -$69,909 | -$42,209 | -$36,409 | -$5,009 | +$4,152 | +$7,266 | +$7,607 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -25.4% | -35.3% | -21.3% | -18.4% | -2.5% | +2.1% | +3.7% | +3.8% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $167K | $170K | $164K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $225K | $248K | $271K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$167K to $225K
28.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$164K to $271K
51.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurel Fork | $192K | $206K | +7.0% | |
| Pine Creek | $173K | $208K | +20.0% | |
| Piper Gap (Tract 080402) | $165K | $174K | +5.3% | |
| Sulphur Springs | $147K | $153K | +4.4% | |
| Laurel Fork | $168K | $175K | +3.9% | |
| Piper Gap (Tract 080401) | $167K | $168K | +1.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurel Fork | $192K | $206K | +7.0% | |
| Pine Creek | $173K | $208K | +20.0% | |
| Fancy Gap | $123K | $133K | +8.0% | |
| Fancy Gap area | $128K | $138K | +7.7% | |
| Sulphur Springs | $147K | $157K | +7.3% | |
| Piper Gap | $165K | $174K | +5.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurel Fork | $192K | $206K | $106K | |
| Sulphur Springs (Tract 080300) | $147K | $157K | $78K | |
| Sulphur Springs (Tract 080200) | $147K | $153K | $76K | |
| Fancy Gap area | $128K | $138K | $69K | |
| Fancy Gap (Tract 080604) | $123K | $133K | $64K | |
| Fancy Gap (Tract 080603) | $136K | $140K | $55K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Carroll, VA · ZIP 24343 · Census Tract 51035080502 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$198K
Downside (P10)
$164K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$206K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$271K
+37% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +37%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $148K | $128K | $156K | $162K | $193K | $198K | $202K | $206K | $206K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$50,309 | -$69,909 | -$42,209 | -$36,409 | -$5,009 | +$4,152 | +$7,266 | +$7,607 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -25.4% | -35.3% | -21.3% | -18.4% | -2.5% | +2.1% | +3.7% | +3.8% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $167K | $170K | $164K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $225K | $248K | $271K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$167K to $225K
28.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$164K to $271K
51.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurel Fork | $192K | $206K | +7.0% | |
| Pine Creek | $173K | $208K | +20.0% | |
| Piper Gap (Tract 080402) | $165K | $174K | +5.3% | |
| Sulphur Springs | $147K | $153K | +4.4% | |
| Laurel Fork | $168K | $175K | +3.9% | |
| Piper Gap (Tract 080401) | $167K | $168K | +1.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurel Fork | $192K | $206K | +7.0% | |
| Pine Creek | $173K | $208K | +20.0% | |
| Fancy Gap | $123K | $133K | +8.0% | |
| Fancy Gap area | $128K | $138K | +7.7% | |
| Sulphur Springs | $147K | $157K | +7.3% | |
| Piper Gap | $165K | $174K | +5.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurel Fork | $192K | $206K | $106K | |
| Sulphur Springs (Tract 080300) | $147K | $157K | $78K | |
| Sulphur Springs (Tract 080200) | $147K | $153K | $76K | |
| Fancy Gap area | $128K | $138K | $69K | |
| Fancy Gap (Tract 080604) | $123K | $133K | $64K | |
| Fancy Gap (Tract 080603) | $136K | $140K | $55K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
