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Arlington, VA · ZIP 22206 · Census Tract 51013102802 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$817K
Downside (P10)
$642K
-21% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$876K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.14M
+40% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -21% to +40%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $561K | $574K | $580K | $593K | $605K | $609K | $635K | $699K | $715K | $784K | $817K | $835K | $849K | $876K | $824K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$255,625 | -$242,725 | -$236,925 | -$223,925 | -$211,625 | -$207,725 | -$181,525 | -$117,625 | -$102,225 | -$32,825 | +$18,040 | +$32,454 | +$59,384 | +$7,114 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -31.3% | -29.7% | -29.0% | -27.4% | -25.9% | -25.4% | -22.2% | -14.4% | -12.5% | -4.0% | +2.2% | +4.0% | +7.3% | +0.9% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $686K | $661K | $642K | $733K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $993K | $1.1M | $1.1M | $929K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$686K to $993K
36.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$733K to $929K
23.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arlington | $801K | $876K | +9.4% | |
| Arlington (Tract 101705) | $835K | $993K | +18.9% | |
| Arlington (Tract 103505) | $796K | $905K | +13.7% | |
| Arlington (Tract 102600) | $832K | $921K | +10.6% | |
| Arlington (Tract 101801) | $827K | $889K | +7.5% | |
| Arlington (Tract 103405) | $832K | $884K | +6.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arlington | $801K | $876K | +9.4% | |
| Arlington (Tract 102002) | $1.08M | $1.28M | +19.1% | |
| Arlington (Tract 101705) | $835K | $993K | +18.9% | |
| Arlington (Tract 102701) | $1.04M | $1.23M | +18.5% | |
| Arlington (Tract 101405) | $574K | $680K | +18.5% | |
| Arlington (Tract 101601) | $1.25M | $1.48M | +18.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arlington | $801K | $876K | $502K | |
| Arlington (Tract 101501) | $357K | $408K | $223K | |
| Arlington (Tract 103501) | $410K | $469K | $222K | |
| Arlington (Tract 101602) | $449K | $464K | $201K | |
| Arlington (Tract 102803) | $325K | $363K | $149K | |
| Arlington (Tract 101704) | $223K | $241K | $96K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Arlington, VA · ZIP 22206 · Census Tract 51013102802 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$817K
Downside (P10)
$642K
-21% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$876K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.14M
+40% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -21% to +40%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $561K | $574K | $580K | $593K | $605K | $609K | $635K | $699K | $715K | $784K | $817K | $835K | $849K | $876K | $824K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$255,625 | -$242,725 | -$236,925 | -$223,925 | -$211,625 | -$207,725 | -$181,525 | -$117,625 | -$102,225 | -$32,825 | +$18,040 | +$32,454 | +$59,384 | +$7,114 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -31.3% | -29.7% | -29.0% | -27.4% | -25.9% | -25.4% | -22.2% | -14.4% | -12.5% | -4.0% | +2.2% | +4.0% | +7.3% | +0.9% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $686K | $661K | $642K | $733K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $993K | $1.1M | $1.1M | $929K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$686K to $993K
36.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$733K to $929K
23.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arlington | $801K | $876K | +9.4% | |
| Arlington (Tract 101705) | $835K | $993K | +18.9% | |
| Arlington (Tract 103505) | $796K | $905K | +13.7% | |
| Arlington (Tract 102600) | $832K | $921K | +10.6% | |
| Arlington (Tract 101801) | $827K | $889K | +7.5% | |
| Arlington (Tract 103405) | $832K | $884K | +6.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arlington | $801K | $876K | +9.4% | |
| Arlington (Tract 102002) | $1.08M | $1.28M | +19.1% | |
| Arlington (Tract 101705) | $835K | $993K | +18.9% | |
| Arlington (Tract 102701) | $1.04M | $1.23M | +18.5% | |
| Arlington (Tract 101405) | $574K | $680K | +18.5% | |
| Arlington (Tract 101601) | $1.25M | $1.48M | +18.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arlington | $801K | $876K | $502K | |
| Arlington (Tract 101501) | $357K | $408K | $223K | |
| Arlington (Tract 103501) | $410K | $469K | $222K | |
| Arlington (Tract 101602) | $449K | $464K | $201K | |
| Arlington (Tract 102803) | $325K | $363K | $149K | |
| Arlington (Tract 101704) | $223K | $241K | $96K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
